Famalicao v Alverca prediction · Primeira Liga

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 23:00

Famalicao 1–4 Alverca FAMALICAO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Famalicao win~~52%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.935

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.924

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Famalicao win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Famalicao was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–22
3′Much as we predicted: Famalicao was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–22
14′We said Famalicao at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–26–51
15′Alverca ahead on 14′ through Francisco Chiquinho. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–26–51
26′We said Famalicao at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–54
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Alverca win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Famalicao win 19%)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Famalicao win: 52% at kick-off, 19% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Famalicao 1–1 Alverca · Francisco Chiquinho
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Famalicao win: 52% at kick-off, 19% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Alverca win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Famalicao win 19%)
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Famalicao 1–1 Alverca · Francisco Chiquinho
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Famalicao win: 52% at kick-off, 19% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Alverca win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Famalicao win 19%)
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Famalicao 1–1 Alverca · Víctor Rofino Gordo
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Famalicao win: 52% at kick-off, 19% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Alverca win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Famalicao win 19%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Famalicao win: 52% at kick-off, 19% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Alverca win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Famalicao win 19%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Famalicao win: 52% at kick-off, 19% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Alverca win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Famalicao win 19%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Famalicao win: 52% at kick-off, 19% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Alverca win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Famalicao win 19%)
45′SECOND HALF Famalicao 1–1 Alverca
48′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Diogo Spencer · Alverca
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Famalicao 1–2 Alverca · Víctor Rofino Gordo
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Famalicao 1–2 Alverca · Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Famalicao · On: Tom Van De Looi · Off: Tamás Szűcs
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Famalicao · On: Patricio Salas · Off: Pedro Bondo Francisco
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Famalicao · On: Pedro Santos · Off: Marcos Peña
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Alverca · On: André Vidigal · Off: Dawda Camara Sankharé
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Alverca · On: Zé Rafael · Off: Davy Gui
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Alverca · On: Matheus Franca · Off: Francisco Chiquinho
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Alverca · On: Vivaldo Semedo · Off: Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Famalicao 1–3 Alverca · Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos
76′⚽ GOAL · 77' Famalicao 1–3 Alverca · Vivaldo Semedo
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Famalicao · On: Umar Abubakar · Off: Georgios Koutsias
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Alverca · On: E. Jemide · Off: Isaac James
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Famalicao 1–4 Alverca · Vivaldo Semedo
84′⚽ GOAL · 85' Famalicao 1–4 Alverca · André Vidigal
FTFULL TIME Famalicao 1–4 Alverca
FTFamalicao 1–4 Alverca · Famalicao win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

Famalicao win52%

Draw25%

Alverca win23%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 20:15

VenueEstadio Municipal 22 de Junho

RefereeSergio Jose Dos Santos Guelho

Line-ups

Famalicao

4-2-3-1

Alverca

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Famalicao

Alverca

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Alverca	7	−2	8
13	Famalicao	7	+2	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Famalicao

4-2-3-1

25 L. Carević

17 Rodrigo Pinheiro

36 M. Mattara

15 Víctor Rofino

28 Pedro Francisco

8 Marcos Peña

21 Tamás Szücs

23 Gil Dias

14 Mathias De Amorim

7 Sorriso

70 G. Koutsias

Coach · Carlos Carvalhal

Substitutes

9 · U. Abubakar

2 · Gustavo Garcia

24 · Mathis Jangeal

19 · Paulo Moreira

3 · L. Realpe

33 · P. Salas

10 · Pedro Santos

30 · V. Serafimović

6 · T. van de Looi

22 · Gabriel

1 · I. Zlobin

Alverca

3-4-3

31 Matheus Mendes

14 S. Baseya

21 Sergi Gómez

12 I. James

20 Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques

35 Rayan

6 D. Gui

55 Francisco Chissumba

10 Chiquinho

19 D. Camara

22 Figueiredo

Coach · Sérgio Ferreira

Substitutes

91 · Jhonatan

26 · Matheus França

11 · C. Nuozzi

9 · Vivaldo Semedo

27 · Toni Tamarit

2 · Zoubdi

7 · André Vidigal

93 · Zé Rafael

4 · Y. Bojang

24 · E. Jemide

17 · S. Merheg

8 · Vasco Moreira

Our number · famalicao winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 19:46 · locked at kick-off

52% The market49%

Us52%

~~Market~~49%

We make Famalicao a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · famalicao win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Famalicao win	52%	49%	+3
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Alverca win	23%	22%	0
Over 2.5 goals	42%	47%	−5
Both teams to score	45%	51%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	27%	−5
Famalicao or draw	77%	78%	0
Famalicao clean sheet	42%	–	–
Alverca clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%

0123450 8.9 8.7 3.6 1 14.4 11.6 5.3 2 10.4 9.0 3.9 3 5.2 4.5 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Famalicao down, Alverca across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,610 Primeira Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Famalicao at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Alverca away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Famalicao, 0.88 for Alverca. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 19:45. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FAM 1–0 ALV · ALV 1–0 FAM

Form · last six in Primeira Liga

FAMALICAO

LLDDDW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 4–0

ALVERCA

DLDLWW2–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	8	+16	24
2	Benfica	8	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
5	Arouca	8	+4	14
6	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
7	GIL Vicente	7	+1	11
8	SC Braga	7	0	11
9	Estrela	8	−1	10
10	Alverca	7	−2	8
11	Maritimo	8	−5	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Famalicao	7	+2	7
14	Rio Ave	8	−9	7
15	Vitória SC	8	−5	5
16	Nacional	8	−9	4
17	Casa Pia	8	−14	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2