Estrela v Casa Pia prediction · Primeira Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Estrela 0–2 Casa Pia ESTRELA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Estrela win~~44%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.756

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.991

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Estrela win at 44%.
2′Much as we predicted: Estrela was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–30
2′KICK-OFF Estrela v Casa Pia
32′We said Estrela at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–25–62
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–62
32′Casa Pia ahead on 31′ through João Rego. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–25–62
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Estrela 0–1 Casa Pia
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Estrela win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Casa Pia win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Estrela win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME Estrela 0–1 Casa Pia
45′SECOND HALF Estrela 0–1 Casa Pia
47′We said Estrela at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
48′Estrela have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 9–24–67
58′13 shots for Estrela, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 6–22–71
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Casa Pia · On: Henrique Araújo · Off: Cassiano
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Casa Pia · On: Jérémy Livolant · Off: Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Estrela · On: Beni Souza · Off: Ianis Stoica
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Estrela · On: Lucas Mincarelli Davin · Off: Rafa Soares
65′We said Estrela at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Estrela win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Patrick Sequeira · Casa Pia
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Estrela · On: Jefferson Encada · Off: Max Scholze
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Estrela · On: Tom Moustier · Off: Lovro Zvonarek
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Casa Pia · On: Márcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira · Off: João Rego
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Casa Pia · On: Selvi Clua · Off: Sebastián Pérez
84′Estrela have had 16 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–8–92
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Estrela · On: Alisson Souza · Off: Eddy Doué
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Casa Pia · On: Kevin Prieto · Off: Benjamin Pauwels
93′Lawrence Ofori scores for Casa Pia on 90′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Estrela 0–2 Casa Pia · Lawrence Ofori
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Jefferson Encada · Estrela
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Pedro Rosas · Casa Pia
FTFULL TIME Estrela 0–2 Casa Pia
FTEstrela 0–2 Casa Pia · Estrela win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Estrela are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estrela 44%, draw 26%, Casa Pia 30%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Estrela v Casa PiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Estrela win44%

Draw26%

Casa Pia win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEstadio Jose Gomes

RefereeBruno Pires Costa

Line-ups

Estrela

4-5-1

Casa Pia

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estrela

Casa Pia

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Estrela	8	−1	10
17	Casa Pia	8	−14	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Estrela

4-5-1

24 Léo Linck

21 M. Scholze

30 Patrick Luan

5 S. Leković

55 Rafa Soares

99 A. Marcus

14 L. Zvonarek

78 Santiago Serra

39 Eddy Doue

10 I. Stoica

37 L. Antonetti

Coach · Pepa

Substitutes

4 · Bernardo Schappo

80 · Alisson

79 · A. Chernev

17 · Jefferson Encada

22 · David Grilo

6 · K. Höög Jansson

19 · Joan Jordán

3 · L. Mincarelli Davin

28 · T. Moustier

51 · Diogo Pinto

93 · B. Souza

72 · H. Poniewas

Casa Pia

4-2-3-1

1 P. Sequeira

18 Geraldes

3 Kaly

43 David Sousa

75 Pedro Rosas

80 L. Ofori

24 S. Pérez

11 M. El Boukammiri

70 João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo

77 B. Pauwels

90 Cassiano

Coach · Filipe Coelho

Substitutes

19 · K. Prieto

17 · E. Maurin

95 · Ivan Mandić

29 · J. Livolant

27 · Kaique Rocha

98 · JP

20 · A. Jatta

4 · João Goulart

8 · Gabi Pereira

44 · Felipe Silva

9 · Henrique Araújo

16 · Silvi

Our number · estrela winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market54%

Us44%

~~Market~~54%

We make Estrela a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estrela v Casa Pia~~1.35 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 24 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 4~~10 v 17

~~The market · Estrela win~~54% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Estrela win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estrela win	44%	54%	−10
Draw	26%	26%	0
Casa Pia win	30%	20%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	43%	49%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Estrela or draw	70%	80%	−10
Estrela clean sheet	35%	–	–
Casa Pia clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 8.6 10.1 5.0 1 12.7 12.2 6.7 2.4 2 8.2 8.6 4.5 3 3.7 3.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estrela down, Casa Pia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,613 Primeira Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estrela at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Casa Pia away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Estrela, 1.05 for Casa Pia. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 15:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~EST 4–0 CAS · CAS 3–5 EST · CAS 1–0 EST · EST 0–1 CAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 24 Aug

ESTRELA

WDWDLL3–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

CASA PIA

LLDLWL0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	8	+16	24
2	Benfica	8	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
5	Arouca	8	+4	14
6	GIL Vicente	8	+2	14
7	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
8	Alverca	8	+1	11
9	SC Braga	8	−1	11
10	Estrela	8	−1	10
11	Vitória SC	9	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Maritimo	9	−10	8
14	Famalicao	8	−1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	−9	7
16	Nacional	8	−9	4
17	Casa Pia	8	−14	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2