Estoril v Moreirense prediction · Primeira Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

EstorilDrawMoreirense

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Estoril 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Estoril are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estoril 46%, draw 24%, Moreirense 30%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Estoril v MoreirenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Estoril win46%

Draw24%

Moreirense win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEstádio António Coimbra da Mota

RefereeCarlos Macedo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estoril

Moreirense

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
18	Estoril	8	−8	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · estoril winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make Estoril a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estoril v Moreirense~~1.51 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 8~~18 v 12

~~The market · Estoril win~~48% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Estoril win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estoril win	46%	48%	−2
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Moreirense win	30%	25%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	29%	−1
Estoril or draw	70%	75%	−5
Estoril clean sheet	32%	–	–
Moreirense clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.5 8.7 4.7 1 11.1 11.5 6.9 2.7 2 7.9 9.0 5.2 2.0 3 4.0 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estoril down, Moreirense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,616 Primeira Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estoril at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Moreirense away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Estoril, 1.15 for Moreirense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MOR 1–0 EST · EST 3–3 MOR · MOR 2–2 EST · EST 2–2 MOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug

ESTORIL

LLDLLL0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

MOREIRENSE

WLLWDL1–0 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	9	+17	27
2	Benfica	8	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
5	Arouca	9	+5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	+1	14
8	Alverca	9	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	−1	11
10	Estrela	9	−3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Maritimo	9	−10	8
14	Famalicao	8	−1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	−9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	−12	7
17	Nacional	8	−9	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2