Casa Pia v Sporting CP prediction · Primeira Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Casa PiaDrawSporting CP

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Sporting CP 72%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting CP are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Casa Pia 12%, draw 16%, Sporting CP 72%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Casa Pia v Sporting CPBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Casa Pia win12%

Draw16%

Sporting CP win72%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 20:15

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Casa Pia

Sporting CP

6Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · Primeira Liga

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
16	Casa Pia	9	−12	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting cp winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Sporting CP a 72% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–2.3, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Casa Pia v Sporting CP~~0.78 – 2.33

~~Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 18~~16 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting CP win

Published at 73%, 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Casa Pia win	12%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Sporting CP win	72%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Casa Pia or draw	28%	–	–
Casa Pia clean sheet	10%	–	–
Sporting CP clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 12.0%

0123450 4.2 10.8 12.0 9.3 5.4 2.61 4.0 7.7 9.3 7.1 4.2 2 3.2 3.7 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Casa Pia down, Sporting CP across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,616 Primeira Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Casa Pia at home: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting CP away: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.78 goals for Casa Pia, 2.33 for Sporting CP. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SPO 3–0 CAS · CAS 0–2 SPO · CAS 1–3 SPO · SPO 2–0 CAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug

CASA PIA

LDLWLW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

SPORTING CP

WWWDDW3–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	9	+17	27
2	Benfica	8	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
5	Arouca	9	+5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	+1	14
8	Alverca	9	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	−1	11
10	Estrela	9	−3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Maritimo	9	−10	8
14	Famalicao	8	−1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	−9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	−12	7
17	Nacional	8	−9	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2