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Casa Pia v Santa Clara

Casa Pia

0–1Full time

Santa Clara

Primeira Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara SANTA CLARA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Santa Clara win~~39%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.562

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.450

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santa Clara win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Santa Clara 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 32–30–38
1′KICK-OFF Casa Pia v Santa Clara
12′Little has changed for our model: Santa Clara 39% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 31–33–37
17′🟨 YELLOW · 18' José Tavares · Santa Clara
45′HALF-TIME Casa Pia 0–0 Santa Clara
45′SECOND HALF Casa Pia 0–0 Santa Clara
48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' David Sousa · Casa Pia
51′🟥 RED CARD · 51' Casa Pia
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Casa Pia · On: Felipe Silva · Off: Henrique Araújo Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Santa Clara · On: Joao Vasconcelos · Off: José Tavares Corrected
68′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Henrique Araújo · Casa Pia
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Emanuel Moreira · Santa Clara
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Santa Clara · On: Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira · Off: Tiago Ribeiro Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Santa Clara · On: Vitor Hugo Amorim de Assis · Off: Vinicius lopes Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Casa Pia · On: Márcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira · Off: Lawrence Ofori Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Casa Pia · On: João Goulart · Off: Pedro Rosas Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Santa Clara · On: Henrique Silva · Off: Emanuel Moreira Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Santa Clara · On: Léo Jacó · Off: Brenner Lucas Goncalves Santos Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Casa Pia · On: Aymen Zouin · Off: Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Casa Pia · On: Evans Maurin · Off: Benjamin Pauwels Corrected
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Márcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira · Casa Pia
90′🟨 YELLOW · 100' Pedro Ferreira · Santa Clara
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara · Joao Vasconcelos
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Joao Vasconcelos · Santa Clara
94′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Andre Geraldes · Casa Pia
97′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Gonçalo Paciência · Santa Clara
FTFULL TIME Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara
FTCasa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara · Santa Clara win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Casa Pia win32%

Draw29%

Santa Clara win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:30

Venue · Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior

Referee · Iancu Ioan Vasilica

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Casa Pia

4-2-3-1

95 I. Mandic

18 A. Geraldes

3 Kaly

43 D. Sousa

75 P. Rosas

16 S. Clua

80 L. Ofori

11 M. Salah

70 J. Rego

77 B. Pauwels

9 H. Araujo

Coach · Filipe Coelho

Substitutes

1 · P. Sequeira

4 · J. Goulart

44 · Felipe Silva

24 · S. Perez

8 · Gabi

19 · K. Prieto

98 · JP

10 · Rochinha

17 · E. Maurin

21 · A. Zouin

90 · Cassiano

20 · A. Jatta

Santa Clara

4-3-3

1 Lucas Franca

42 Lucas Soares

4 P. Pacheco

21 E. Fernandes

5 Guilherme Romao

8 J. Tavares

6 P. Ferreira

20 T. Ribeiro

70 Vinicius Lopes

9 G. Paciencia

10 Brenner

Coach · Petit

Substitutes

12 · Neneca

41 · Daniel Borges

19 · Ythallo

3 · H. Silva

17 · Vasconcelos

22 · Vitinho

73 · Leo Jaco

11 · Welinton Torrao

7 · Fernando

99 · Sorriso

80 · T. Duarte

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Casa Pia

4-2-3-1

95 I. Mandic

18 A. Geraldes

3 Kaly

43 D. Sousa

75 P. Rosas

16 S. Clua

80 L. Ofori

11 M. Salah

70 J. Rego

77 B. Pauwels

9 H. Araujo

Coach · Filipe Coelho

Substitutes

1 · P. Sequeira

4 · J. Goulart

44 · Felipe Silva

24 · S. Perez

8 · Gabi

19 · K. Prieto

98 · JP

10 · Rochinha

17 · E. Maurin

21 · A. Zouin

90 · Cassiano

20 · A. Jatta

Santa Clara

4-3-3

1 Lucas Franca

42 Lucas Soares

4 P. Pacheco

21 E. Fernandes

5 Guilherme Romao

8 J. Tavares

6 P. Ferreira

20 T. Ribeiro

70 Vinicius Lopes

9 G. Paciencia

10 Brenner

Coach · Petit

Substitutes

12 · Neneca

41 · Daniel Borges

19 · Ythallo

3 · H. Silva

17 · Vasconcelos

22 · Vitinho

73 · Leo Jaco

11 · Welinton Torrao

7 · Fernando

99 · Sorriso

80 · T. Duarte

Our number · santa clara winPublished 10 Oct 20:35

39% The market45%

Us39%

~~Market~~45%

We make Santa Clara a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · santa clara win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Casa Pia win	32%	25%	+7
Draw	29%	29%	0
Santa Clara win	39%	45%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	35%	43%	−8
Both teams to score	41%	48%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	61%	68%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	16%	23%	−7
Casa Pia or draw	61%	55%	+6
Casa Pia clean sheet	33%	–	–
Santa Clara clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.2%

0123450 12.2 14.2 7.6 2.8 1 12.6 12.9 7.4 2.7 2 5.9 6.5 3.6 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Casa Pia down, Santa Clara across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,604 Primeira Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Casa Pia at home: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Santa Clara away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Casa Pia, 1.11 for Santa Clara. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 20:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CAS 0–0 SAN · SAN 1–0 CAS · SAN 2–1 CAS · CAS 0–2 SAN

Form · last six in Primeira Liga

CASA PIA

LLLDLW0–7 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 2–1

SANTA CLARA

WWDWWD1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	7	+15	21
2	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
3	Benfica	7	+15	16
4	Santa Clara	7	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	+3	11
6	GIL Vicente	7	+1	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	0	11
8	SC Braga	7	0	11
9	Estrela	7	0	10
10	Alverca	7	−2	8
11	Maritimo	7	−4	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Famalicao	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	−3	5
15	Nacional	7	−8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	−10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	−13	4
18	Estoril	7	−7	2