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Benfica v Vitória SC

Benfica
2–0Full time
Vitória SC

Primeira Liga · SUN 11 OCT · Estádio da Luz

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47
Benfica 2–0 Vitória SC BENFICA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Benfica win72%
The market said77%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.117
The market’s Brier score0.082

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 36 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Benfica win at 72%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Benfica 72% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–17–11
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Benfica v Vitória SC
  4. 4′Little has changed for our model: Benfica 72% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–18–11
  5. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Tony Strata · Vitória SC
  6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Benfica 1–0 Vitória SC · Samuel Dahl
  7. 26′Benfica ahead on 24′ through Samuel Dahl. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
  8. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 88% now
  9. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 66% now
  10. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 66% now
  11. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 88% now
  12. 28′Benfica ahead on 24′ through Samuel Dahl. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
  13. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 66% now
  14. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 88% now
  15. 31′We said Benfica at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–10–3
  16. 34′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 88–10–2
  17. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Gonçalo Nogueira · Vitória SC
  18. 44′We said Benfica at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–10–2
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Benfica 1–0 Vitória SC
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Benfica 1–0 Vitória SC
  21. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Toni Borevković · Vitória SC
  22. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Leandro Barreiro · Benfica
  23. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Tomás Araújo · Benfica
  24. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva · Vitória SC
  25. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Benfica · On: Claudio Echeverri · Off: Andreas Schjelderup
  26. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Benfica · On: Fredrik Aursnes · Off: Leandro Barreiro
  27. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vitória SC · On: Beni Mukendi · Off: Lohann Doucet
  28. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vitória SC · On: Telmo Arcanjo · Off: Miguel Nogueira
  29. 68′We said Benfica at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  30. 69′We said Benfica at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  31. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Balieiro Thiago · Vitória SC
  32. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Benfica · On: Dodi Lukebakio · Off: Rafa Silva
  33. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Benfica · On: Heorhii Sudakov · Off: Alexander Bah
  34. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Vitória SC · On: Patrick Ouotro · Off: Arnel Jakupović
  35. 75′Heorhii Sudakov scores for Benfica on 75′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  36. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Benfica 2–0 Vitória SC · Samuel Dahl
  37. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Benfica 2–0 Vitória SC · Heorhii Sudakov
  38. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 99% now
  39. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 90% now
  40. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 90% now
  41. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 99% now
  42. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 90% now
  43. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 99% now
  44. 79′Heorhii Sudakov scores for Benfica on 75′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  45. 82′We said Benfica at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  46. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vitória SC · On: Miguel Magalhaes · Off: Tony Strata
  47. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Benfica · On: Jhon Durán · Off: Vangelis Pavlidis
  48. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Vitória SC · On: Matija Mitrović · Off: Gonçalo Nogueira Corrected
  49. FTFULL TIME Benfica 2–0 Vitória SC
  50. FTBenfica 2–0 Vitória SC · Benfica win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Benfica win72%
Draw17%
Vitória SC win11%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:00

VenueEstádio da Luz

RefereeLuis Miguel Branco Godinho

Line-ups

Benfica

4-2-3-1

Vitória SC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Benfica

Vitória SC

21Days since last match21
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Benfica7+1516
14Vitória SC7−35

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Benfica

4-2-3-1

24 S. Soares

6 A. Bah

3 A. Circati

44 T. Araujo

26 S. Dahl

18 L. Barreiro

36 J. Palhinha

27 Rafa Silva

25 G. Prestianni

21 A. Schjelderup

14 V. Pavlidis

Coach · Marco Silva

Substitutes

1 · A. Trubin

34 · S. El Karouani

62 · J. Neto

33 · Gabriel Indio

8 · F. Aursnes

16 · Manu Silva

30 · C. Echeverri

10 · G. Sudakov

88 · T. Freitas

22 · J. Duran

72 · Anisio

11 · D. Lukebakio

Vitória SC

4-2-3-1

48 O. Zych

23 T. Strata

21 T. Borevkovic

28 Thiago Balieiro

13 J. Mendes

44 L. Doucet

8 G. Nogueira

17 M. Nogueira

20 Samu

7 O. Camara

9 A. Jakupovic

Coach · Tiago Margarido

Substitutes

98 · Lucas Furtado

4 · O. Rivas Viondi

82 · F. Dias

5 · A. Sidibe

2 · Maga

16 · B. Mukendi

56 · S. Verdi

10 · Alanzinho

6 · M. Mitrovic

18 · T. Arcanjo

29 · P. Ouotro

19 · V. Andersson

Our number · benfica winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
72% The market77%
Us72%
Market77%

We make Benfica a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80%85% 9 OCT 06:2011 OCT 15:37
Our probability · benfica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 76% to 77% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Benfica win72%77%−5
Draw17%15%+2
Vitória SC win11%8%+3
Over 2.5 goals60%65%−5
Both teams to score48%50%−2
Over 1.5 goals81%84%−3
Over 3.5 goals38%44%−6
Benfica or draw89%92%−3
Benfica clean sheet46%––
Vitória SC clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.1%
0123450 4.3 3.8 1 10.8 7.8 3.2 2 12.1 9.3 3.6 3 9.4 7.2 2.8 4 5.5 4.2 5 2.6
under 2% 5% 12%+Benfica down, Vitória SC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.10
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored3 of 10
Last meetingsBEN 3–0 VIT · VIT 0–3 BEN · VIT 0–3 BEN · BEN 1–0 VIT

Form · last six in Primeira Liga

BENFICA

WWWWWL7–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 1–3

VITÓRIA SC

LWLDLD2–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Porto8+1624
2Sporting CP8+1118
3Santa Clara8+818
4Benfica7+1516
5Academico Viseu8+114
6Arouca7+311
7GIL Vicente7+111
8SC Braga7011
9Estrela7010
10Alverca7−28
11Maritimo8−58
12Moreirense8−78
13Famalicao7+27
14Vitória SC7−35
15Nacional7−84
16Rio Ave7−104
17Casa Pia8−144
18Estoril8−82

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.