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Benfica v Vitória SC
Benfica
Vitória SCPrimeira Liga · SUN 11 OCT · Estádio da Luz
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Benfica win at 72%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Benfica 72% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–17–11
- 1′KICK-OFF Benfica v Vitória SC
- 4′Little has changed for our model: Benfica 72% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–18–11
- 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Tony Strata · Vitória SC
- 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Benfica 1–0 Vitória SC · Samuel Dahl
- 26′Benfica ahead on 24′ through Samuel Dahl. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
- 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 88% now
- 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 66% now
- 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 66% now
- 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 88% now
- 28′Benfica ahead on 24′ through Samuel Dahl. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
- 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 66% now
- 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 88% now
- 31′We said Benfica at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–10–3
- 34′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 88–10–2
- 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Gonçalo Nogueira · Vitória SC
- 44′We said Benfica at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–10–2
- 45′HALF-TIME Benfica 1–0 Vitória SC
- 46′SECOND HALF Benfica 1–0 Vitória SC
- 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Toni Borevković · Vitória SC
- 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Leandro Barreiro · Benfica
- 55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Tomás Araújo · Benfica
- 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva · Vitória SC
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Benfica · On: Claudio Echeverri · Off: Andreas Schjelderup
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Benfica · On: Fredrik Aursnes · Off: Leandro Barreiro
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vitória SC · On: Beni Mukendi · Off: Lohann Doucet
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vitória SC · On: Telmo Arcanjo · Off: Miguel Nogueira
- 68′We said Benfica at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 69′We said Benfica at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Balieiro Thiago · Vitória SC
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Benfica · On: Dodi Lukebakio · Off: Rafa Silva
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Benfica · On: Heorhii Sudakov · Off: Alexander Bah
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Vitória SC · On: Patrick Ouotro · Off: Arnel Jakupović
- 75′Heorhii Sudakov scores for Benfica on 75′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Benfica 2–0 Vitória SC · Samuel Dahl
- 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Benfica 2–0 Vitória SC · Heorhii Sudakov
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 99% now
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 90% now
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 90% now
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 99% now
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 90% now
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Benfica win: 72% at kick-off, 99% now
- 79′Heorhii Sudakov scores for Benfica on 75′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 82′We said Benfica at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vitória SC · On: Miguel Magalhaes · Off: Tony Strata
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Benfica · On: Jhon Durán · Off: Vangelis Pavlidis
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Vitória SC · On: Matija Mitrović · Off: Gonçalo Nogueira Corrected
- FTFULL TIME Benfica 2–0 Vitória SC
- FTBenfica 2–0 Vitória SC · Benfica win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.
The model’s prediction on this page stays free.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Benfica win72%
Vitória SC win11%Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:00
VenueEstádio da Luz
RefereeLuis Miguel Branco Godinho
Match timeline
All events
BenficaMIN
Vitória SCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Benfica
4-2-3-1
Vitória SC
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Benfica
Vitória SC
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
Line-ups
Benfica
4-2-3-1
24 S. Soares
6 A. Bah
3 A. Circati
44 T. Araujo
26 S. Dahl
18 L. Barreiro
36 J. Palhinha
27 Rafa Silva
25 G. Prestianni
21 A. Schjelderup
14 V. Pavlidis
Coach · Marco Silva
Substitutes
1 · A. Trubin
34 · S. El Karouani
62 · J. Neto
33 · Gabriel Indio
8 · F. Aursnes
16 · Manu Silva
30 · C. Echeverri
10 · G. Sudakov
88 · T. Freitas
22 · J. Duran
72 · Anisio
11 · D. Lukebakio
Vitória SC
4-2-3-1
48 O. Zych
23 T. Strata
21 T. Borevkovic
28 Thiago Balieiro
13 J. Mendes
44 L. Doucet
8 G. Nogueira
17 M. Nogueira
20 Samu
7 O. Camara
9 A. Jakupovic
Coach · Tiago Margarido
Substitutes
98 · Lucas Furtado
4 · O. Rivas Viondi
82 · F. Dias
5 · A. Sidibe
2 · Maga
16 · B. Mukendi
56 · S. Verdi
10 · Alanzinho
6 · M. Mitrovic
18 · T. Arcanjo
29 · P. Ouotro
19 · V. Andersson
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Benfica
4-2-3-1
24 S. Soares
6 A. Bah
3 A. Circati
44 T. Araujo
26 S. Dahl
18 L. Barreiro
36 J. Palhinha
27 Rafa Silva
25 G. Prestianni
21 A. Schjelderup
14 V. Pavlidis
Coach · Marco Silva
Substitutes
1 · A. Trubin
34 · S. El Karouani
62 · J. Neto
33 · Gabriel Indio
8 · F. Aursnes
16 · Manu Silva
30 · C. Echeverri
10 · G. Sudakov
88 · T. Freitas
22 · J. Duran
72 · Anisio
11 · D. Lukebakio
Vitória SC
4-2-3-1
48 O. Zych
23 T. Strata
21 T. Borevkovic
28 Thiago Balieiro
13 J. Mendes
44 L. Doucet
8 G. Nogueira
17 M. Nogueira
20 Samu
7 O. Camara
9 A. Jakupovic
Coach · Tiago Margarido
Substitutes
98 · Lucas Furtado
4 · O. Rivas Viondi
82 · F. Dias
5 · A. Sidibe
2 · Maga
16 · B. Mukendi
56 · S. Verdi
10 · Alanzinho
6 · M. Mitrovic
18 · T. Arcanjo
29 · P. Ouotro
19 · V. Andersson
We make Benfica a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.8.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 76% to 77% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica win | 72% | 77% | −5 |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | +2 |
| Vitória SC win | 11% | 8% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 44% | −6 |
| Benfica or draw | 89% | 92% | −3 |
| Benfica clean sheet | 46% | – | – |
| Vitória SC clean sheet | 10% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
10 meetings since 2021Form · last six in Primeira Liga
BENFICA
VITÓRIA SC
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 3 | Santa Clara | 8 | +8 | 18 |
| 4 | Benfica | 7 | +15 | 16 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu | 8 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Arouca | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Estrela | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | −2 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | −5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | −7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | −3 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | −8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | −10 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | −14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | −8 | 2 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Santa Clara
Academico Viseu
Arouca
GIL Vicente
SC Braga
Estrela
Alverca
Maritimo
Moreirense
Famalicao
Nacional
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
Estoril