Arouca v Estrela prediction · Primeira Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:00

Arouca 1–0 Estrela AROUCA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arouca win~~51%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.362

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.471

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arouca win at 51%.
2′Much as we predicted: Arouca was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
4′5′ and it is 1–0: Arouca have scored. 1–0 · 75–16–9
7′We published Arouca at 51%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–9
29′5′ and it is 1–0: Iván Barbero on the scoresheet for Arouca. 1–0 · 76–17–7
32′We published Arouca at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
49′Estrela ahead on 45′ through Ianis Stoica. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–5
50′Estrela ahead on 45′ through Ianis Stoica. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
60′We published Arouca at 51%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
64′We published Arouca at 51%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–16–3
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
65′We published Arouca at 51%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–3
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 82% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Arouca · On: Dylan Nandín · Off: Iván Barbero
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Arouca · On: Gabrijel Rukavina · Off: Näis Djouahra
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
72′We published Arouca at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Arouca · On: Lee Hyun-ju · Off: Espen van Ee Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Arouca · On: Brian Mansilla · Off: Alfonso Trezza
81′We published Arouca at 51%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–0
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Taichi Fukui · Arouca
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Estrela · On: Emerson Vanga · Off: Eddy Doué
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Jose Fontán · Arouca
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Estrela · On: Alisson Souza · Off: Lovro Zvonarek
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Estrela · On: Kevin Hoog Jansson · Off: Santiago Serra
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 95' Arouca win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
FTFULL TIME Arouca 1–0 Estrela
FTArouca 1–0 Estrela · Arouca win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Arouca win51%

Draw23%

Estrela win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:30

VenueEstádio Municipal de Arouca

RefereeLuis Carlos Mateus Filipe

Line-ups

Arouca

4-2-3-1

Estrela

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Arouca

Estrela

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Arouca	7	+3	11
9	Estrela	7	0	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Arouca

4-2-3-1

12 I. De Arruabarrena

28 Tiago Esgaio

15 J. Sanchez

3 J. Fontan

18 O. Lebedenko

6 E. van Ee

8 T. Fukui

19 A. Trezza

10 P. Gozalbez

7 N. Djouahra

17 I. Barbero

Coach · Vitor Severino

Substitutes

1 · J. Vinarcik

5 · B. Popovic

2 · L. Shahar

37 · M. Climent

4 · D. Monteiro

89 · Pedro Santos

14 · Lee Hyun-ju

21 · M. Flores

9 · F. Mayulu

24 · B. Mansilla

23 · D. Nandin

20 · G. Rukavina

Estrela

4-2-3-1

24 Leo Linck

21 M. Scholze

30 Luan Patrick

5 S. Lekovic

55 Rafa Soares

78 S. Serra

39 G. Doue

99 A. Marcus

14 L. Zvonarek

10 I. Stoica

37 L. Antonetti

Coach · Pepa

Substitutes

51 · D. Pinto

79 · A. Chernev

4 · Bernardo Schappo

3 · L. Mincarelli

28 · T. Moustier

93 · B. Souza

71 · E. Pedro Vanga

6 · K. Jansson

49 · R. Mitongo

17 · J. Encada

80 · Alisson Souza

72 · H. Poniewas

Our number · arouca winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

51% The market44%

Us51%

~~Market~~44%

We make Arouca a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · arouca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arouca win	51%	44%	+7
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Estrela win	26%	29%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	53%	51%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	74%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	30%	0
Arouca or draw	74%	71%	+3
Arouca clean sheet	33%	–	–
Estrela clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.8 7.3 3.8 1 10.7 10.9 6.3 2.4 2 8.6 9.5 5.3 3 4.8 5.3 3.0 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arouca down, Estrela across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,607 Primeira Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arouca at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Estrela away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Arouca, 1.11 for Estrela. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ARO 1–0 EST · EST 3–1 ARO · ARO 1–0 EST · EST 2–1 ARO

Form · last six in Primeira Liga

AROUCA

WLWDLD4–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

ESTRELA

DWDWDL2–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	8	+16	24
2	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
3	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
4	Benfica	7	+15	16
5	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
6	Arouca	7	+3	11
7	GIL Vicente	7	+1	11
8	SC Braga	7	0	11
9	Estrela	7	0	10
10	Alverca	7	−2	8
11	Maritimo	8	−5	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Famalicao	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	−3	5
15	Nacional	7	−8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	−10	4
17	Casa Pia	8	−14	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2