Alverca v Arouca prediction · Primeira Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:46

Alverca 0–1 Arouca ALVERCA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alverca win~~42%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.676

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.797

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alverca win at 42%.
2′Much as we predicted: Alverca was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–33
2′KICK-OFF Alverca v Arouca
6′🟥 RED CARD · 6' Alverca
7′A red card for Alverca on 6′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 41–26–33
11′SUBSTITUTION · 9' Alverca · On: Yaya Bojang · Off: Francisco Chissumba
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Jose Fontán · Arouca
25′We said Alverca at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–23–62
25′Taichi Fukui scores for Arouca on 24′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–23–62
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Alverca 0–1 Arouca
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Alverca win: 42% at kick-off, 15% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Arouca win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Alverca win 38%)
27′We said Alverca at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 14–23–63
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Alverca win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
45′HALF-TIME Alverca 0–1 Arouca
45′SECOND HALF Alverca 0–1 Arouca
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Alverca · On: Ian Luccas · Off: Rayan Lucas
48′We said Alverca at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Pedro Santos · Arouca
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Arouca · On: Mateo Flores · Off: Pedro Santos
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Alverca · On: Matheus Franca · Off: Dawda Camara Sankharé
66′We said Alverca at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Arouca · On: Dylan Nandín · Off: Iván Barbero
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Arouca · On: Boris Popovic · Off: Jose Fontán
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos · Alverca
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Alverca win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Alverca · On: Nabil Touaizi · Off: Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Alverca · On: Zé Rafael · Off: Davy Gui
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Arouca · On: Brian Mansilla · Off: Alfonso Trezza
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Arouca · On: Lee Hyun-ju · Off: Taichi Fukui
FTFULL TIME Alverca 0–1 Arouca
FTAlverca 0–1 Arouca · Alverca win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alverca are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alverca 42%, draw 25%, Arouca 34%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Alverca v AroucaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Alverca win42%

Draw25%

Arouca win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueComplexo Desportivo FC Alverca

RefereePedro Miguel Torres Ramalho

Line-ups

Alverca

3-4-3

Arouca

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alverca

Arouca

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Arouca	8	+4	14
8	Alverca	8	+1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Alverca

3-4-3

31 Matheus Mendes

14 S. Baseya

21 Sergi Gómez

12 I. James

20 Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques

6 D. Gui

35 Rayan

55 Francisco Chissumba

22 Figueiredo

19 D. Camara

10 Chiquinho

Coach · Sérgio Ferreira

Substitutes

4 · Y. Bojang

7 · André Vidigal

26 · Matheus França

24 · E. Jemide

17 · S. Merheg

11 · C. Nuozzi

9 · Vivaldo Semedo

93 · Zé Rafael

2 · Zoubdi

8 · Vasco Moreira

91 · Jhonatan

25 · Ian Luccas

Arouca

4-2-3-1

12 I. de Arruabarrena

28 Tiago Esgaio

15 Javi Sánchez

3 José Fontán

18 O. Lebedenko

6 E. van Ee

8 T. Fukui

19 A. Trezza

89 Pedro Santos

7 N. Djouahra

17 Barbero

Coach · Vítor Severino

Substitutes

21 · Mateo Flores

37 · Mario Climent

10 · Pablo Gozálbez

14 · Lee Hyun-Ju

24 · B. Mansilla

9 · F. Mayulu

4 · Diogo Monteiro

23 · D. Nandín

5 · B. Popović

20 · G. Rukavina

2 · L. Shahar

1 · J. Vinarčík

Our number · alverca winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market44%

Us42%

~~Market~~44%

We make Alverca a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alverca v Arouca~~1.44 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~8 v 5

~~The market · Alverca win~~44% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alverca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alverca win	42%	44%	−2
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Arouca win	34%	28%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	0
Alverca or draw	66%	72%	−6
Alverca clean sheet	29%	–	–
Arouca clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.4 9.0 5.4 2.3 1 10.2 11.6 7.6 3.2 2 7.0 8.6 5.4 2.3 3 3.4 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alverca down, Arouca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,613 Primeira Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alverca at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Arouca away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Alverca, 1.26 for Arouca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALV 2–1 ARO · ARO 1–0 ALV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug

ALVERCA

LDLWWW1–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–1

AROUCA

LWDLDW0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	8	+16	24
2	Benfica	8	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
5	Arouca	8	+4	14
6	GIL Vicente	8	+2	14
7	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
8	Alverca	8	+1	11
9	SC Braga	8	−1	11
10	Estrela	8	−1	10
11	Vitória SC	9	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Maritimo	9	−10	8
14	Famalicao	8	−1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	−9	7
16	Nacional	8	−9	4
17	Casa Pia	8	−14	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2