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Academico Viseu v Estoril

Academico Viseu

2–1Full time

Estoril

Primeira Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio do Fontelo

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Academico Viseu 2–1 Estoril ACADEMICO VISEU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Academico Viseu win~~46%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.442

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.510

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Academico Viseu win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Academico Viseu 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
1′KICK-OFF Academico Viseu v Estoril
9′Little has changed for our model: Academico Viseu 46% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Jordan Holsgrove · Estoril
28′⚽ GOAL · 29' Academico Viseu 0–0 Estoril · Cihan Kahraman
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Academico Viseu 1–0 Estoril · Cihan Kahraman
30′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Cihan Kahraman · Academico Viseu
45′HALF-TIME Academico Viseu 1–0 Estoril
45′SECOND HALF Academico Viseu 1–0 Estoril
51′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Estoril · On: Nail Omerovic · Off: Milan Robin
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Academico Viseu 1–0 Estoril · Rafik Guitane
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Academico Viseu 1–1 Estoril · Rafik Guitane
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Soufiane Messeguem · Academico Viseu
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Academico Viseu · On: Nils Mortimer · Off: Lorougnon Gohi
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Anthony Correia · Academico Viseu
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Estoril · On: Pedro Carvalho · Off: Ricard Sanchez Sendra
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Estoril · On: Tiago Parente · Off: Roko Jurišić
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Academico Viseu · On: Alvaro Zamora · Off: João Guilherme
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Academico Viseu 2–1 Estoril · Rafik Guitane
87′⚽ GOAL · 88' Academico Viseu 2–1 Estoril · Soufiane Messeguem
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Estoril · On: André Tiago Ramos das Neves · Off: Xavier Sintes Egea
90′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Academico Viseu · On: Cristian Ferreira · Off: Soufiane Messeguem
90′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Academico Viseu · On: Paulo Rafael Pereira Araujo · Off: André Clóvis
FTFULL TIME Academico Viseu 2–1 Estoril
FTAcademico Viseu 2–1 Estoril · Academico Viseu win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Academico Viseu win46%

Draw24%

Estoril win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:30

Venue · Estadio do Fontelo

Referee · Claudio Pereira

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Academico Viseu

4-2-3-1

98 Ewerton

75 Robinho

41 A. Correia

2 N. Michelis

3 M. Brau

8 C. Kahraman

7 L. Silva

31 Joao Guilherme

14 S. Messeguem

47 L. Gohi

33 Andre Clovis

Coach · Bruno Pinheiro

Substitutes

1 · M. Lavin

57 · Gu Costa

21 · T. Domingos

5 · Pedro Barcelos

44 · R. Pereira

45 · A. Mestanza

6 · A. Ceitil

18 · C. Ferreira

9 · M. Bouldini

10 · A. Zamora

22 · N. Mortimer

77 · Paulinho

Estoril

3-4-2-1

1 J. Robles

35 S. Amissah

6 X. Sintes

5 A. Tsoungui

2 R. Sanchez

44 M. Robin

10 J. Holsgrove

21 R. Jurisic

99 R. Guitane

12 J. Carvalho

7 A. Lacximicant

Coach · Vasco Matos

Substitutes

16 · M. Turk

43 · F. Smythe-Lowe

4 · Ferro

3 · F. Medrano

11 · N. Omerovic

19 · T. Parente

22 · P. Carvalho

42 · J. Arnolin

90 · T. Brito

9 · A. Camblan

17 · Peixinho

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Academico Viseu

4-2-3-1

98 Ewerton

75 Robinho

41 A. Correia

2 N. Michelis

3 M. Brau

8 C. Kahraman

7 L. Silva

31 Joao Guilherme

14 S. Messeguem

47 L. Gohi

33 Andre Clovis

Coach · Bruno Pinheiro

Substitutes

1 · M. Lavin

57 · Gu Costa

21 · T. Domingos

5 · Pedro Barcelos

44 · R. Pereira

45 · A. Mestanza

6 · A. Ceitil

18 · C. Ferreira

9 · M. Bouldini

10 · A. Zamora

22 · N. Mortimer

77 · Paulinho

Estoril

3-4-2-1

1 J. Robles

35 S. Amissah

6 X. Sintes

5 A. Tsoungui

2 R. Sanchez

44 M. Robin

10 J. Holsgrove

21 R. Jurisic

99 R. Guitane

12 J. Carvalho

7 A. Lacximicant

Coach · Vasco Matos

Substitutes

16 · M. Turk

43 · F. Smythe-Lowe

4 · Ferro

3 · F. Medrano

11 · N. Omerovic

19 · T. Parente

22 · P. Carvalho

42 · J. Arnolin

90 · T. Brito

9 · A. Camblan

17 · Peixinho

Our number · academico viseu winPublished 10 Oct 20:35

46% The market42%

Us46%

~~Market~~42%

We make Academico Viseu a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Academico Viseu win	46%	42%	+4
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Estoril win	30%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	50%	+4
Both teams to score	55%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	29%	+3
Academico Viseu or draw	70%	69%	0
Academico Viseu clean sheet	29%	–	–
Estoril clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.7 7.8 4.6 1 9.8 11.0 7.0 3.0 2 7.4 9.0 5.5 2.3 3 4.0 4.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Academico Viseu down, Estoril across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,604 Primeira Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Academico Viseu at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Estoril away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Academico Viseu, 1.25 for Estoril. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 20:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Primeira Liga

ACADEMICO VISEU

LDLWWW0–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

ESTORIL

LLLDLL0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	7	+15	21
2	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
3	Benfica	7	+15	16
4	Santa Clara	7	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	+3	11
6	GIL Vicente	7	+1	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	0	11
8	SC Braga	7	0	11
9	Estrela	7	0	10
10	Alverca	7	−2	8
11	Maritimo	7	−4	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Famalicao	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	−3	5
15	Nacional	7	−8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	−10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	−13	4
18	Estoril	7	−7	2