União Leiria U23 v Torreense U23 prediction · Liga Revelação U23

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:31

União Leiria U23 0–2 Torreense U23 TORREENSE U23 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torreense U23 win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.523

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.589

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torreense U23 win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Torreense U23 was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 33–26–41
1′KICK-OFF União Leiria U23 v Torreense U23
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Torreense U23 win 36%)
45′SECOND HALF União Leiria U23 0–0 Torreense U23
46′HALF-TIME União Leiria U23 0–0 Torreense U23
47′We published Torreense U23 at 41%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 7–20–73
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 7–20–73
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' União Leiria U23 0–1 Torreense U23
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Torreense U23 win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Torreense U23 win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 41%)
48′Torreense U23 find the net on 47′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–20–74
52′We published Torreense U23 at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
65′We published Torreense U23 at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Torreense U23 win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
74′We published Torreense U23 at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
81′We published Torreense U23 at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Torreense U23 win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
87′We published Torreense U23 at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′We published Torreense U23 at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' União Leiria U23 0–2 Torreense U23
89′A goal for Torreense U23 on 88′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
96′Full time, 0–2. We called Torreense U23 at 41% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME União Leiria U23 0–2 Torreense U23
FTUnião Leiria U23 0–2 Torreense U23 · Torreense U23 win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torreense U23 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: União Leiria U23 33%, draw 26%, Torreense U23 41%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on União Leiria U23 v Torreense U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

União Leiria U23 win33%

Draw26%

Torreense U23 win41%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

União Leiria U23

Torreense U23

7Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	União Leiria U23	8	0	11
17	Torreense U23	7	−5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torreense u23 winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Torreense U23 a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · União Leiria U23 v Torreense U23~~1.19 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 18 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 6~~9 v 17

~~The market · Torreense U23 win~~38% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Torreense U23 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
União Leiria U23 win	33%	36%	−3
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Torreense U23 win	41%	38%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	54%	−7
Both teams to score	51%	58%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
União Leiria U23 or draw	59%	62%	−3
União Leiria U23 clean sheet	26%	–	–
Torreense U23 clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.6 11.0 7.2 3.3 1 9.7 12.2 8.5 3.9 2 5.5 7.4 5.0 2.3 3 2.2 3.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+União Leiria U23 down, Torreense U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

União Leiria U23 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Torreense U23 away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for União Leiria U23, 1.36 for Torreense U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TOR 2–0 UNI · UNI 1–3 TOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 18 Aug

UNIÃO LEIRIA U23

WLLLDW2–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

TORREENSE U23

DDWLLL1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	9	+7	18
2	Estoril U23	9	+5	17
3	Academico Viseu U23	8	+5	17
4	Felgueiras U23	9	+5	15
5	Rio Ave U23	8	+3	13
6	Vizela U23	8	+1	13
7	Moreirense U23	9	+8	12
8	Sporting Braga U23	9	0	11
9	União Leiria U23	8	0	11
10	Famalicão U23	8	−1	11
11	Benfica U23	9	−1	11
12	Farense U23	8	−1	11
13	Leixões U23	9	+2	10
14	Santa Clara U23	7	−5	10
15	Penafiel U23	8	0	8
16	Gil Vicente U23	9	−4	8
17	Torreense U23	7	−5	6
18	Marítimo U23	8	−5	6
19	Estrela U23	8	−8	5
20	Portimonense U23	8	−6	4