Home › Football › Liga Revelação U23 › Torreense U23 v Leixões U23

Torreense U23 v Leixões U23

Torreense U23

1–3Full time

Leixões U23

Liga Revelação U23 · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:32

Torreense U23 1–3 Leixões U23 TORREENSE U23 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torreense U23 win~~52%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.887

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.857

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torreense U23 win at 52%.
1′KICK-OFF Torreense U23 v Leixões U23
2′Much as we predicted: Torreense U23 was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Torreense U23 1–0 Leixões U23
7′6′ and it is 1–0: Torreense U23 have scored. 1–0 · 76–16–9
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Torreense U23 win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
8′We published Torreense U23 at 52%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–7
45′HALF-TIME Torreense U23 1–0 Leixões U23
46′SECOND HALF Torreense U23 1–0 Leixões U23
50′Leixões U23 find the net on 49′. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–41–21
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Torreense U23 1–1 Leixões U23
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Torreense U23 win: 52% at kick-off, 38% now
51′We said Torreense U23 at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–41–21
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Torreense U23 win 37%)
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Torreense U23 1–2 Leixões U23
55′A goal for Leixões U23 on 54′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 10–26–64
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Torreense U23 win: 52% at kick-off, 10% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Leixões U23 win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 26%)
56′We said Torreense U23 at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–25–65
57′We said Torreense U23 at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–65
58′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 9–25–66
70′We said Torreense U23 at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–74
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Torreense U23 win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
80′79′ and it is 1–3: Leixões U23 have scored. 1–3 · 0–1–99
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Torreense U23 1–3 Leixões U23
81′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Torreense U23 1–3 Leixões U23
FTTorreense U23 1–3 Leixões U23 · Torreense U23 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

Torreense U23 win52%

Draw23%

Leixões U23 win25%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Torreense U23

Leixões U23

8Days since last match15

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Leixões U23	7	0	6
16	Torreense U23	6	−3	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torreense u23 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

52% The market50%

Us52%

~~Market~~50%

We make Torreense U23 a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · torreense u23 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torreense U23 win	52%	50%	+2
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Leixões U23 win	25%	26%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	60%	−8
Both teams to score	53%	61%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	76%	80%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	30%	39%	−9
Torreense U23 or draw	75%	74%	+1
Torreense U23 clean sheet	34%	–	–
Leixões U23 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 6.1 7.3 3.7 1 11.1 11.0 6.1 2.2 2 8.9 9.4 5.1 3 5.0 5.3 2.9 4 2.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torreense U23 down, Leixões U23 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,144 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.4% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torreense U23 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Leixões U23 away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Torreense U23, 1.08 for Leixões U23. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LEI 2–2 TOR · TOR 0–2 LEI · TOR 2–0 LEI · LEI 2–0 TOR

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23

TORREENSE U23

DDDWLL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 2–3

LEIXÕES U23

LDLDLD1–2 · 1–1 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Estoril U23	8	+5	16
2	Sporting CP U23	8	+5	15
3	Academico Viseu U23	7	+4	14
4	Rio Ave U23	7	+3	12
5	Felgueiras U23	7	+3	11
6	Farense U23	7	0	11
7	Vizela U23	6	+2	10
8	Benfica U23	7	+1	10
9	Sporting Braga U23	8	0	10
10	Santa Clara U23	5	+2	9
11	Moreirense U23	7	+1	8
12	Gil Vicente U23	7	−1	8
13	União Leiria U23	7	−1	8
14	Famalicão U23	7	−2	8
15	Leixões U23	7	0	6
16	Torreense U23	6	−3	6
17	Marítimo U23	8	−5	6
18	Penafiel U23	7	−2	5
19	Estrela U23	7	−7	5
20	Portimonense U23	7	−5	4