Sporting CP U23 v Gil Vicente U23 prediction · Liga Revelação U23

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Sporting CP U23 2–0 Gil Vicente U23 SPORTING CP U23 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting CP U23 win~~45%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.457

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.451

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting CP U23 win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sporting CP U23 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF Sporting CP U23 v Gil Vicente U23
6′Little has changed for our model: Sporting CP U23 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
39′Sporting CP U23 score on 39′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–8
39′We said Sporting CP U23 at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–8
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Sporting CP U23 1–0 Gil Vicente U23
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Sporting CP U23 win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
40′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
45′HALF-TIME Sporting CP U23 2–0 Gil Vicente U23
46′Sporting CP U23 find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
46′We said Sporting CP U23 at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Sporting CP U23 2–0 Gil Vicente U23
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Sporting CP U23 win: 45% at kick-off, 93% now
47′SECOND HALF Sporting CP U23 2–0 Gil Vicente U23
55′We said Sporting CP U23 at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Sporting CP U23 win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
83′We said Sporting CP U23 at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sporting CP U23 2–0 Gil Vicente U23
FTSporting CP U23 2–0 Gil Vicente U23 · Sporting CP U23 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting CP U23 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting CP U23 45%, draw 24%, Gil Vicente U23 31%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Sporting CP U23 v Gil Vicente U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sporting CP U23 win45%

Draw24%

Gil Vicente U23 win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting CP U23

Gil Vicente U23

8Days since last match4

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

Last match: 13 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sporting CP U23	8	+5	15
16	Gil Vicente U23	8	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting cp u23 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market45%

Us45%

~~Market~~45%

We make Sporting CP U23 a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting CP U23 v Gil Vicente U23~~1.60 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 24 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 8~~3 v 16

~~The market · Sporting CP U23 win~~45% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting CP U23 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting CP U23 win	45%	45%	0
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Gil Vicente U23 win	31%	28%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	55%	52%	+3
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	75%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	32%	+1
Sporting CP U23 or draw	69%	72%	−3
Sporting CP U23 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Gil Vicente U23 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.4 7.7 4.7 2.0 1 9.4 11.0 7.3 3.2 2 7.1 9.0 5.8 2.5 3 3.8 4.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting CP U23 down, Gil Vicente U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,152 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.71 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting CP U23 at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gil Vicente U23 away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Sporting CP U23, 1.29 for Gil Vicente U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~GIL 2–1 SPO · GIL 1–2 SPO · SPO 1–1 GIL · SPO 3–1 GIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 24 Aug

SPORTING CP U23

WWWDDL4–1 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

GIL VICENTE U23

LLDWWL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Academico Viseu U23	8	+5	17
2	Estoril U23	8	+5	16
3	Sporting CP U23	8	+5	15
4	Rio Ave U23	8	+3	13
5	Vizela U23	7	+3	13
6	Felgueiras U23	8	+3	12
7	Moreirense U23	8	+8	11
8	União Leiria U23	8	0	11
9	Famalicão U23	8	−1	11
10	Farense U23	8	−1	11
11	Sporting Braga U23	8	0	10
12	Benfica U23	8	−1	10
13	Leixões U23	8	+2	9
14	Santa Clara U23	6	−5	9
15	Penafiel U23	8	0	8
16	Gil Vicente U23	8	−2	8
17	Torreense U23	7	−5	6
18	Marítimo U23	8	−5	6
19	Estrela U23	8	−8	5
20	Portimonense U23	8	−6	4