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Sporting Braga U23 v Marítimo U23

Sporting Braga U23

1–3Full time

Marítimo U23

Liga Revelação U23 · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:01

Sporting Braga U23 1–3 Marítimo U23 SPORTING BRAGA U23 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting Braga U23 win~~60%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.066

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.182

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting Braga U23 win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sporting Braga U23 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–18
1′KICK-OFF Sporting Braga U23 v Marítimo U23
8′Little has changed for our model: Sporting Braga U23 60% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–19
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Sporting Braga U23 1–0 Marítimo U23
13′⚽ GOAL · 14' Sporting Braga U23 1–0 Marítimo U23
14′14′ and it is 1–0: Sporting Braga U23 have scored. 1–0 · 81–13–6
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Sporting Braga U23 win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Sporting Braga U23 win: 60% at kick-off, 59% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Sporting Braga U23 win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Sporting Braga U23 win: 60% at kick-off, 59% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Sporting Braga U23 win: 60% at kick-off, 59% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Sporting Braga U23 win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
26′⚽ GOAL · 28' Sporting Braga U23 1–0 Marítimo U23
40′⚽ GOAL · 42' Sporting Braga U23 1–0 Marítimo U23
45′HALF-TIME Sporting Braga U23 1–1 Marítimo U23
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Sporting Braga U23 1–1 Marítimo U23
45′⚽ GOAL · 63' Sporting Braga U23 1–1 Marítimo U23
69′SECOND HALF Sporting Braga U23 1–2 Marítimo U23
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Sporting Braga U23 1–2 Marítimo U23
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Marítimo U23
75′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Sporting Braga U23
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Sporting Braga U23 1–3 Marítimo U23
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Sporting Braga U23 1–3 Marítimo U23
FTFULL TIME Sporting Braga U23 1–3 Marítimo U23
FTSporting Braga U23 1–3 Marítimo U23 · Sporting Braga U23 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 14:31 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Braga U23 win60%

Draw21%

Marítimo U23 win19%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sporting Braga U23

Marítimo U23

23Days since last match17

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sporting Braga U23	7	+2	10
20	Marítimo U23	7	−7	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting braga u23 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 14:31 · locked at kick-off

60% The market65%

Us60%

~~Market~~65%

We make Sporting Braga U23 a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sporting braga u23 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Braga U23 win	60%	65%	−4
Draw	21%	20%	0
Marítimo U23 win	19%	15%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	61%	−4
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	40%	−6
Sporting Braga U23 or draw	81%	85%	−4
Sporting Braga U23 clean sheet	37%	–	–
Marítimo U23 clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.5%

0123450 4.9 5.5 2.6 1 10.5 9.6 5.0 2 9.9 9.7 4.8 3 6.6 6.4 3.2 4 3.3 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Braga U23 down, Marítimo U23 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,143 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Braga U23 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Marítimo U23 away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Sporting Braga U23, 0.99 for Marítimo U23. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SPO 2–1 MAR · MAR 1–2 SPO · SPO 3–0 MAR · MAR 2–0 SPO

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23

SPORTING BRAGA U23

WWDDDD2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

MARÍTIMO U23

DLDLLL0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Estoril U23	8	+5	16
2	Sporting CP U23	8	+5	15
3	Academico Viseu U23	7	+4	14
4	Rio Ave U23	7	+3	12
5	Felgueiras U23	7	+3	11
6	Farense U23	7	0	11
7	Sporting Braga U23	7	+2	10
8	Vizela U23	6	+2	10
9	Benfica U23	7	+1	10
10	Santa Clara U23	5	+2	9
11	Moreirense U23	7	+1	8
12	Gil Vicente U23	7	−1	8
13	União Leiria U23	7	−1	8
14	Famalicão U23	7	−2	8
15	Leixões U23	7	0	6
16	Torreense U23	6	−3	6
17	Penafiel U23	7	−2	5
18	Estrela U23	7	−7	5
19	Portimonense U23	7	−5	4
20	Marítimo U23	7	−7	3