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Sporting Braga U23 v Benfica U23

Sporting Braga U23

4–3Full time

Benfica U23

Liga Revelação U23 · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:02

Sporting Braga U23 4–3 Benfica U23 SPORTING BRAGA U23 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting Braga U23 win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.536

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.460

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting Braga U23 win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sporting Braga U23 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–23–37
1′KICK-OFF Sporting Braga U23 v Benfica U23
17′We said Sporting Braga U23 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 64%. 1–0 · 64–20–16
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Sporting Braga U23 1–0 Benfica U23
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Sporting Braga U23 win: 41% at kick-off, 64% now
18′A goal for Sporting Braga U23 on 17′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–16
18′We said Sporting Braga U23 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–16
25′Benfica U23 score on 25′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 38–27–35
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Sporting Braga U23 1–1 Benfica U23
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Sporting Braga U23 win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
28′Benfica U23 find the net on 27′. 1–2. 1–2 · 16–22–62
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Sporting Braga U23 1–2 Benfica U23
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Sporting Braga U23 win: 41% at kick-off, 16% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Benfica U23 win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Sporting Braga U23 win 38%)
29′We said Sporting Braga U23 at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–2 · 16–22–63
34′We said Sporting Braga U23 at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–22–63
40′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 35–32–32
40′A goal for Sporting Braga U23 on 40′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 35–32–32
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Sporting Braga U23 2–2 Benfica U23
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Sporting Braga U23 win: 41% at kick-off, 35% now
45′SECOND HALF Sporting Braga U23 2–2 Benfica U23
46′HALF-TIME Sporting Braga U23 2–2 Benfica U23
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Benfica U23 win 64%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Sporting Braga U23 win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
59′We said Sporting Braga U23 at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–43–27
68′We said Sporting Braga U23 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 3–2 · 77–19–4
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sporting Braga U23 3–2 Benfica U23
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Sporting Braga U23 win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Sporting Braga U23 win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 52%)
69′Sporting Braga U23 score on 68′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 77–19–4
69′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 77–19–4
73′We said Sporting Braga U23 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 3–2 · 80–17–3
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Sporting Braga U23 win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
79′We said Sporting Braga U23 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–1
82′We said Sporting Braga U23 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 4–2 · 99–1–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Sporting Braga U23 4–2 Benfica U23
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Sporting Braga U23 win: 41% at kick-off, 99% now
83′Sporting Braga U23 find the net on 82′. 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
83′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 99–1–0
84′We said Sporting Braga U23 at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
92′7 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 97–3–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Sporting Braga U23 4–3 Benfica U23
93′A goal for Benfica U23 on 90′ — 4–3. 4–3 · 97–3–0
94′4–3 at the end. Our 41% on Sporting Braga U23 comes in. 4–3 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Sporting Braga U23 4–3 Benfica U23
FTSporting Braga U23 4–3 Benfica U23 · Sporting Braga U23 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sporting Braga U23 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Braga U23 41%, draw 22%, Benfica U23 37%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Braga U23 v Benfica U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Braga U23 win41%

Draw22%

Benfica U23 win37%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Braga U23

Benfica U23

4Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Sporting Braga U23	9	0	11
11	Benfica U23	9	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting braga u23 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Sporting Braga U23 a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Braga U23 v Benfica U23~~1.71 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 31 Aug~~W0 D5 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 11~~10 v 11

~~The market · Sporting Braga U23 win~~45% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting Braga U23 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Braga U23 win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Benfica U23 win	37%	30%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	64%	58%	+6
Both teams to score	65%	60%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	84%	79%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	42%	37%	+5
Sporting Braga U23 or draw	63%	70%	−7
Sporting Braga U23 clean sheet	20%	–	–
Benfica U23 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.5 6.1 4.7 2.6 1 6.5 9.7 7.9 4.3 2 5.3 8.4 6.7 3.6 3 3.0 4.8 3.8 2.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Braga U23 down, Benfica U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,162 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Braga U23 at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Benfica U23 away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Sporting Braga U23, 1.61 for Benfica U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BEN 1–1 SPO · SPO 3–1 BEN · BEN 2–1 SPO · BEN 0–0 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 31 Aug

SPORTING BRAGA U23

DDDDLD1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

BENFICA U23

LWWWLD0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	9	+7	18
2	Academico Viseu U23	9	+5	18
3	Estoril U23	9	+5	17
4	Rio Ave U23	9	+7	16
5	Felgueiras U23	9	+5	15
6	Famalicão U23	9	0	14
7	Vizela U23	8	+1	13
8	Moreirense U23	9	+8	12
9	Farense U23	9	−1	12
10	Sporting Braga U23	9	0	11
11	Benfica U23	9	−1	11
12	União Leiria U23	9	−2	11
13	Leixões U23	9	+2	10
14	Santa Clara U23	7	−5	10
15	Penafiel U23	9	0	9
16	Torreense U23	8	−3	9
17	Gil Vicente U23	9	−4	8
18	Marítimo U23	9	−6	6
19	Estrela U23	9	−8	6
20	Portimonense U23	9	−10	4