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Santa Clara U23 v Sporting Braga U23

Santa Clara U23

1–1Full time

Sporting Braga U23

Liga Revelação U23 · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 13:30

Santa Clara U23 1–1 Sporting Braga U23 SANTA CLARA U23 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Santa Clara U23 win~~39%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.863

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.835

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santa Clara U23 win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Santa Clara U23 was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–24–37
1′KICK-OFF Santa Clara U23 v Sporting Braga U23
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Santa Clara U23 win 32%)
45′SECOND HALF Santa Clara U23 0–0 Sporting Braga U23
46′HALF-TIME Santa Clara U23 0–0 Sporting Braga U23
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Santa Clara U23 win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 28–44–28
58′We said Santa Clara U23 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–46–26
65′We said Santa Clara U23 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
73′We said Santa Clara U23 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Santa Clara U23 win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
79′We said Santa Clara U23 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
84′We said Santa Clara U23 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–83–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Santa Clara U23 win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
86′We said Santa Clara U23 at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–7–93
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Santa Clara U23 0–1 Sporting Braga U23
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Sporting Braga U23 win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
87′A goal for Sporting Braga U23 on 87′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–6–94
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Santa Clara U23 1–1 Sporting Braga U23
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Sporting Braga U23 win 2%)
98′Santa Clara U23 score on 90′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–2
98′Full time, 1–1. We called Santa Clara U23 at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Santa Clara U23 1–1 Sporting Braga U23
FTSanta Clara U23 1–1 Sporting Braga U23 · Santa Clara U23 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Santa Clara U23 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Santa Clara U23 39%, draw 24%, Sporting Braga U23 37%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Santa Clara U23 v Sporting Braga U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Santa Clara U23 win39%

Draw24%

Sporting Braga U23 win37%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santa Clara U23

Sporting Braga U23

6Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sporting Braga U23	8	0	10
14	Santa Clara U23	6	−5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santa clara u23 winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 14 Oct 04:47 · locked at kick-off

39% The market30%

Us39%

~~Market~~30%

We make Santa Clara U23 a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santa Clara U23 v Sporting Braga U23~~1.44 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 24 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~14 v 11

~~The market · Santa Clara U23 win~~30% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Santa Clara U23 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Clara U23 win	39%	30%	+9
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Sporting Braga U23 win	37%	44%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Santa Clara U23 or draw	63%	56%	+7
Santa Clara U23 clean sheet	25%	–	–
Sporting Braga U23 clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.6 8.6 5.8 2.7 1 8.8 11.3 8.1 3.8 2 6.0 8.3 5.8 2.7 3 2.9 4.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Clara U23 down, Sporting Braga U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,153 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.7% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santa Clara U23 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Braga U23 away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Santa Clara U23, 1.40 for Sporting Braga U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–2 SPO · SPO 2–1 SAN · SPO 1–0 SAN · SAN 3–2 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 24 Aug

SANTA CLARA U23

WWDDDL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–7

SPORTING BRAGA U23

WDDDDL1–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	9	+7	18
2	Academico Viseu U23	8	+5	17
3	Estoril U23	8	+5	16
4	Rio Ave U23	8	+3	13
5	Vizela U23	7	+3	13
6	Felgueiras U23	8	+3	12
7	Moreirense U23	8	+8	11
8	União Leiria U23	8	0	11
9	Famalicão U23	8	−1	11
10	Farense U23	8	−1	11
11	Sporting Braga U23	8	0	10
12	Benfica U23	8	−1	10
13	Leixões U23	8	+2	9
14	Santa Clara U23	6	−5	9
15	Penafiel U23	8	0	8
16	Gil Vicente U23	9	−4	8
17	Torreense U23	7	−5	6
18	Marítimo U23	8	−5	6
19	Estrela U23	8	−8	5
20	Portimonense U23	8	−6	4