Rio Ave U23 v Portimonense U23 prediction · Liga Revelação U23

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:31

Rio Ave U23 4–0 Portimonense U23 RIO AVE U23 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rio Ave U23 win~~52%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.349

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.263

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rio Ave U23 win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rio Ave U23 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Rio Ave U23 v Portimonense U23
6′We said Rio Ave U23 at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
6′Rio Ave U23 find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Rio Ave U23 1–0 Portimonense U23
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Rio Ave U23 win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
35′We said Rio Ave U23 at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Rio Ave U23 2–0 Portimonense U23
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Rio Ave U23 win: 52% at kick-off, 94% now
37′A goal for Rio Ave U23 on 36′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
39′We said Rio Ave U23 at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′SECOND HALF Rio Ave U23 2–0 Portimonense U23
46′HALF-TIME Rio Ave U23 2–0 Portimonense U23
52′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–0–0
52′PENALTY MISSED · 51' Rio Ave U23
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Rio Ave U23 3–0 Portimonense U23
53′Rio Ave U23 score on 53′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
54′We said Rio Ave U23 at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
57′🟥 RED CARD · 57' Portimonense U23
58′Portimonense U23 are down to ten from 57′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Rio Ave U23 4–0 Portimonense U23
74′Rio Ave U23 find the net on 74′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
93′4–0 at the end. Our 52% on Rio Ave U23 comes in. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Rio Ave U23 4–0 Portimonense U23
FTRio Ave U23 4–0 Portimonense U23 · Rio Ave U23 win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rio Ave U23 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rio Ave U23 52%, draw 24%, Portimonense U23 24%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Rio Ave U23 v Portimonense U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Rio Ave U23 win52%

Draw24%

Portimonense U23 win24%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rio Ave U23

Portimonense U23

7Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Rio Ave U23	8	+3	13
20	Portimonense U23	8	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rio ave u23 winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

52% The market58%

Us52%

~~Market~~58%

We make Rio Ave U23 a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rio Ave U23 v Portimonense U23~~1.62 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 25 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 4~~5 v 20

~~The market · Rio Ave U23 win~~58% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rio Ave U23 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rio Ave U23 win	52%	58%	−6
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Portimonense U23 win	24%	19%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	78%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	36%	−9
Rio Ave U23 or draw	76%	81%	−5
Rio Ave U23 clean sheet	36%	–	–
Portimonense U23 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 7.0 7.7 3.7 1 12.0 11.4 5.9 2.0 2 9.4 9.4 4.8 3 5.1 5.1 2.6 4 2.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rio Ave U23 down, Portimonense U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rio Ave U23 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Portimonense U23 away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Rio Ave U23, 1.01 for Portimonense U23. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RIO 1–0 POR · POR 1–3 RIO · RIO 2–1 POR · POR 0–2 RIO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 25 Aug

RIO AVE U23

LWDWDD2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

PORTIMONENSE U23

LDLLDL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	9	+7	18
2	Estoril U23	9	+5	17
3	Academico Viseu U23	8	+5	17
4	Felgueiras U23	9	+5	15
5	Rio Ave U23	8	+3	13
6	Vizela U23	8	+1	13
7	Moreirense U23	9	+8	12
8	Sporting Braga U23	9	0	11
9	União Leiria U23	8	0	11
10	Famalicão U23	8	−1	11
11	Benfica U23	9	−1	11
12	Farense U23	8	−1	11
13	Leixões U23	9	+2	10
14	Santa Clara U23	7	−5	10
15	Penafiel U23	8	0	8
16	Gil Vicente U23	9	−4	8
17	Torreense U23	7	−5	6
18	Marítimo U23	8	−5	6
19	Estrela U23	8	−8	5
20	Portimonense U23	8	−6	4