Portimonense U23 v Marítimo U23 prediction · Liga Revelação U23

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Portimonense U23DrawMarítimo U23

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Portimonense U23 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Portimonense U23 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Portimonense U23 41%, draw 26%, Marítimo U23 33%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Portimonense U23 v Marítimo U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Portimonense U23 win41%

Draw26%

Marítimo U23 win33%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portimonense U23

Marítimo U23

7Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Marítimo U23	9	−6	6
20	Portimonense U23	9	−10	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · portimonense u23 winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Portimonense U23 a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Portimonense U23 v Marítimo U23~~1.39 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 1 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~20 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portimonense U23 win	41%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Marítimo U23 win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Portimonense U23 or draw	67%	–	–
Portimonense U23 clean sheet	30%	–	–
Marítimo U23 clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 9.4 5.5 2.2 1 10.7 12.1 7.4 3.0 2 7.2 8.5 5.1 2.1 3 3.4 4.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Portimonense U23 down, Marítimo U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,163 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.71 goals a meeting; 7 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Portimonense U23 at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Marítimo U23 away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Portimonense U23, 1.20 for Marítimo U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.71

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 7

~~Both scored~~7 of 7

~~Last meetings~~MAR 2–1 POR · POR 3–2 MAR · POR 2–1 MAR · MAR 1–2 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 1 Sept

PORTIMONENSE U23

DLLDLL0–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–4

MARÍTIMO U23

DLLLWL1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	9	+7	18
2	Academico Viseu U23	9	+5	18
3	Estoril U23	9	+5	17
4	Rio Ave U23	9	+7	16
5	Felgueiras U23	9	+5	15
6	Sporting Braga U23	10	+1	14
7	Famalicão U23	9	0	14
8	Vizela U23	8	+1	13
9	Moreirense U23	9	+8	12
10	Farense U23	9	−1	12
11	Benfica U23	10	−2	11
12	União Leiria U23	9	−2	11
13	Leixões U23	9	+2	10
14	Santa Clara U23	7	−5	10
15	Penafiel U23	9	0	9
16	Torreense U23	8	−3	9
17	Gil Vicente U23	9	−4	8
18	Marítimo U23	9	−6	6
19	Estrela U23	9	−8	6
20	Portimonense U23	9	−10	4