Penafiel U23 v Vizela U23 prediction · Liga Revelação U23

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Penafiel U23DrawVizela U23

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Penafiel U23 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Penafiel U23 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Penafiel U23 47%, draw 24%, Vizela U23 29%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Penafiel U23 v Vizela U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Penafiel U23 win47%

Draw24%

Vizela U23 win29%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Penafiel U23

Vizela U23

7Days since last match8

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Vizela U23	8	+1	13
15	Penafiel U23	9	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · penafiel u23 winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Penafiel U23 a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Penafiel U23 v Vizela U23~~1.64 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 7 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 13~~15 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Penafiel U23 win	47%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Vizela U23 win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Penafiel U23 or draw	71%	–	–
Penafiel U23 clean sheet	29%	–	–
Vizela U23 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.5 7.3 4.4 1 9.5 11.1 7.0 2.9 2 7.5 9.2 5.7 2.4 3 4.1 5.0 3.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Penafiel U23 down, Vizela U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,163 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Penafiel U23 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Vizela U23 away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Penafiel U23, 1.24 for Vizela U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 7 Sept

PENAFIEL U23

DLDLWD3–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–0

VIZELA U23

WWWDWL1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	9	+7	18
2	Academico Viseu U23	9	+5	18
3	Estoril U23	9	+5	17
4	Rio Ave U23	9	+7	16
5	Felgueiras U23	9	+5	15
6	Sporting Braga U23	10	+1	14
7	Famalicão U23	9	0	14
8	Vizela U23	8	+1	13
9	Moreirense U23	9	+8	12
10	Farense U23	9	−1	12
11	Benfica U23	10	−2	11
12	União Leiria U23	9	−2	11
13	Leixões U23	9	+2	10
14	Santa Clara U23	7	−5	10
15	Penafiel U23	9	0	9
16	Torreense U23	8	−3	9
17	Gil Vicente U23	9	−4	8
18	Marítimo U23	9	−6	6
19	Estrela U23	9	−8	6
20	Portimonense U23	9	−10	4