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Penafiel U23 v Benfica U23
Penafiel U23Benfica U23Liga Revelação U23 · TUE 13 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Benfica U23 win at 42%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Penafiel U23 v Benfica U23
- 2′1′ and it is 1–0: Penafiel U23 have scored. 1–0 · 58–20–21
- 2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Penafiel U23 1–0 Benfica U23
- 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Benfica U23 win: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
- 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Penafiel U23 win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Benfica U23 win 21%)
- 3′We said Benfica U23 at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 58–20–21
- 13′We said Benfica U23 at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 60–21–19
- 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Penafiel U23 2–0 Benfica U23
- 25′Penafiel U23 find the net on 24′. 2–0. 2–0 · 83–11–6
- 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Benfica U23 win: 42% at kick-off, 6% now
- 26′We said Benfica U23 at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–0 · 83–11–6
- 34′We said Benfica U23 at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–10–4
- 45′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 88–9–3
- 45′HALF-TIME Penafiel U23 2–0 Benfica U23
- 46′SECOND HALF Penafiel U23 2–0 Benfica U23
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Benfica U23 win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
- 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Penafiel U23 2–1 Benfica U23
- 68′68′ and it is 3–1: Penafiel U23 have scored. 3–1 · 95–4–1
- 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Penafiel U23 3–1 Benfica U23
- 69′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 96–4–1
- FTFULL TIME Penafiel U23 3–1 Benfica U23
- FTPenafiel U23 3–1 Benfica U23 · Benfica U23 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassOur analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.
What decides it
The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.
– –Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.
– –What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.
– –The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.
See the passesPre-match prediction
Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off
Penafiel U23 win35%Benfica U23 win42%Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:00
Match timeline
All events
Penafiel U23MINBenfica U23Events will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Penafiel U23
Benfica U23
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Benfica U23 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 18 | Penafiel U23 | 7 | −2 | 5 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Benfica U23 a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel U23 win | 35% | 31% | +4 |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | −4 |
| Benfica U23 win | 42% | 43% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 78% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 37% | +3 |
| Penafiel U23 or draw | 58% | 57% | 0 |
| Penafiel U23 clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
| Benfica U23 clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
0 meetings since 2021No meetings between these two in Liga Revelação U23 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.
Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23
PENAFIEL U23
BENFICA U23
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estoril U23 | 8 | +5 | 16 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP U23 | 8 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 |  Academico Viseu U23 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 4 |  Rio Ave U23 | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 |  Felgueiras U23 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 |  Farense U23 | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 |  Vizela U23 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Benfica U23 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 |  Sporting Braga U23 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 |  Santa Clara U23 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 |  Moreirense U23 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 |  Gil Vicente U23 | 7 | −1 | 8 |
| 13 |  União Leiria U23 | 7 | −1 | 8 |
| 14 |  Famalicão U23 | 7 | −2 | 8 |
| 15 |  Leixões U23 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 |  Torreense U23 | 6 | −3 | 6 |
| 17 |  Marítimo U23 | 8 | −5 | 6 |
| 18 | Penafiel U23 | 7 | −2 | 5 |
| 19 |  Estrela U23 | 7 | −7 | 5 |
| 20 |  Portimonense U23 | 7 | −5 | 4 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.