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Model 1.2

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Marítimo U23 v Famalicão U23

Marítimo U23
0–1Full time
Famalicão U23

Liga Revelação U23 · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:31
Marítimo U23 0–1 Famalicão U23 FAMALICÃO U23 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Famalicão U23 win56%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.286
The market’s Brier score0.325

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Famalicão U23 win at 56%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Famalicão U23 was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 22–21–56
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Marítimo U23 v Famalicão U23
  4. 9′We published Famalicão U23 at 56%. Our model now makes it 78%. 0–1 · 8–14–78
  5. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Marítimo U23 0–1 Famalicão U23
  6. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Famalicão U23 win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
  7. 11′Famalicão U23 score on 10′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–14–78
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 7–15–78
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Marítimo U23 0–1 Famalicão U23
  10. 46′HALF-TIME Marítimo U23 0–1 Famalicão U23
  11. 50′We published Famalicão U23 at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 5–16–80
  12. 57′🟥 RED CARD · 57' Famalicão U23
  13. 58′A red card for Famalicão U23 on 58′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 4–16–81
  14. 71′We published Famalicão U23 at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  15. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Famalicão U23 win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
  16. 79′We published Famalicão U23 at 56%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  17. 87′We published Famalicão U23 at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  18. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Famalicão U23 win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
  19. 96′Full time, 0–1. We called Famalicão U23 at 56% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
  20. FTFULL TIME Marítimo U23 0–1 Famalicão U23
  21. FTMarítimo U23 0–1 Famalicão U23 · Famalicão U23 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Famalicão U23 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Marítimo U23 22%, draw 21%, Famalicão U23 56%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Marítimo U23 v Famalicão U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Marítimo U23 win22%
Draw21%
Famalicão U23 win56%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marítimo U23

Famalicão U23

8Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

Last match: 13 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Famalicão U238−111
18Marítimo U238−56

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · famalicão u23 winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
56% The market53%
Us56%
Market53%

We make Famalicão U23 a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Marítimo U23 v Famalicão U231.15 – 1.96
Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 25 AugW1 D1 L4 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 6 v 1118 v 10
The market · Famalicão U23 win53% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 14:40
Our probability · Famalicão U23 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Marítimo U23 win22%23%−1
Draw21%24%−3
Famalicão U23 win56%53%+3
Over 2.5 goals60%59%+1
Both teams to score58%59%−1
Over 1.5 goals81%80%+1
Over 3.5 goals38%39%−1
Marítimo U23 or draw44%47%−3
Marítimo U23 clean sheet14%––
Famalicão U23 clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%
0123450 4.4 9.1 8.6 5.6 2.8 1 5.5 9.7 9.7 6.3 3.1 2 3.0 5.7 5.5 3.6 3 2.2 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Marítimo U23 down, Famalicão U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.83
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsFAM 6–2 MAR · MAR 0–6 FAM · MAR 0–0 FAM · FAM 1–2 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 25 Aug

MARÍTIMO U23

LDLLLW0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 3–1

FAMALICÃO U23

WLLLWW2–1 · 3–4 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sporting CP U239+718
2Estoril U239+517
3Academico Viseu U238+517
4Felgueiras U239+515
5Rio Ave U238+313
6Vizela U238+113
7Moreirense U239+812
8Sporting Braga U239011
9União Leiria U238011
10Famalicão U238−111
11Benfica U239−111
12Farense U238−111
13Leixões U239+210
14Santa Clara U237−510
15Penafiel U23808
16Gil Vicente U239−48
17Torreense U237−56
18Marítimo U238−56
19Estrela U238−85
20Portimonense U238−64

The competition's standings before kick-off.