Home › Football › Liga Revelação U23 › Felgueiras U23 v Rio Ave U23

Felgueiras U23 v Rio Ave U23

Felgueiras U23

2–2Full time

Rio Ave U23

Liga Revelação U23 · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57

Felgueiras U23 2–2 Rio Ave U23 FELGUEIRAS U23 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Felgueiras U23 win~~46%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.875

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Felgueiras U23 win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Felgueiras U23 was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
1′KICK-OFF Felgueiras U23 v Rio Ave U23
11′11′ and it is 0–1: Rio Ave U23 have scored. 0–1 · 21–23–56
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Felgueiras U23 0–1 Rio Ave U23
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Felgueiras U23 win: 46% at kick-off, 21% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Rio Ave U23 win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Felgueiras U23 win 21%)
13′We said Felgueiras U23 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–24–56
17′We said Felgueiras U23 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
21′Rio Ave U23 find the net on 21′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–24–57
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Felgueiras U23 0–1 Rio Ave U23
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Felgueiras U23 win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 16–25–60
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Felgueiras U23 0–2 Rio Ave U23
34′We said Felgueiras U23 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Felgueiras U23 win: 46% at kick-off, 4% now
42′A goal for Felgueiras U23 on 41′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 13–25–63
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Felgueiras U23 1–2 Rio Ave U23
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Felgueiras U23 win: 46% at kick-off, 13% now
45′We said Felgueiras U23 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–2 · 12–25–64
45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 12–25–64
45′HALF-TIME Felgueiras U23 1–2 Rio Ave U23
46′SECOND HALF Felgueiras U23 1–2 Rio Ave U23
52′We said Felgueiras U23 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–66
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Felgueiras U23 win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
87′87′ and it is 2–2: Felgueiras U23 have scored. 2–2 · 7–88–5
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Felgueiras U23 2–2 Rio Ave U23
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Felgueiras U23 win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Rio Ave U23 win 5%)
89′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 6–90–4
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Felgueiras U23 win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
FTFULL TIME Felgueiras U23 2–2 Rio Ave U23
FTFelgueiras U23 2–2 Rio Ave U23 · Felgueiras U23 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

Felgueiras U23 win46%

Draw24%

Rio Ave U23 win29%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Felgueiras U23

Rio Ave U23

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Rio Ave U23	7	+3	12
5	Felgueiras U23	7	+3	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · felgueiras u23 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

46% The market40%

Us46%

~~Market~~40%

We make Felgueiras U23 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · felgueiras u23 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Felgueiras U23 win	46%	40%	+6
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Rio Ave U23 win	29%	34%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	55%	−4
Both teams to score	54%	59%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	34%	−4
Felgueiras U23 or draw	71%	66%	+5
Felgueiras U23 clean sheet	31%	–	–
Rio Ave U23 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.3 8.1 4.5 1 10.6 11.4 6.9 2.7 2 7.8 9.1 5.3 2.1 3 4.1 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Felgueiras U23 down, Rio Ave U23 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,144 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.4% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Felgueiras U23 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Rio Ave U23 away: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Felgueiras U23, 1.18 for Rio Ave U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Liga Revelação U23 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23

FELGUEIRAS U23

LDWWDW1–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–1

RIO AVE U23

WLWDWD2–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Estoril U23	8	+5	16
2	Sporting CP U23	8	+5	15
3	Academico Viseu U23	7	+4	14
4	Rio Ave U23	7	+3	12
5	Felgueiras U23	7	+3	11
6	Farense U23	7	0	11
7	Vizela U23	6	+2	10
8	Benfica U23	7	+1	10
9	Sporting Braga U23	8	0	10
10	Santa Clara U23	5	+2	9
11	Moreirense U23	7	+1	8
12	Gil Vicente U23	7	−1	8
13	União Leiria U23	7	−1	8
14	Famalicão U23	7	−2	8
15	Leixões U23	7	0	6
16	Torreense U23	6	−3	6
17	Marítimo U23	8	−5	6
18	Penafiel U23	7	−2	5
19	Estrela U23	7	−7	5
20	Portimonense U23	7	−5	4