Famalicão U23 v União Leiria U23 prediction · Liga Revelação U23

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Famalicão U23DrawUnião Leiria U23

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Famalicão U23 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Famalicão U23 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Famalicão U23 59%, draw 21%, União Leiria U23 20%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Famalicão U23 v União Leiria U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Famalicão U23 win59%

Draw21%

União Leiria U23 win20%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Famalicão U23

União Leiria U23

7Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Famalicão U23	9	0	14
12	União Leiria U23	9	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · famalicão u23 winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Famalicão U23 a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Famalicão U23 v União Leiria U23~~2.04 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 1 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 11~~7 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Famalicão U23 win	59%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
União Leiria U23 win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Famalicão U23 or draw	80%	–	–
Famalicão U23 clean sheet	34%	–	–
União Leiria U23 clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.3 5.1 2.6 1 9.2 9.5 5.3 2 9.1 9.7 5.3 3 6.2 6.6 3.6 4 3.2 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Famalicão U23 down, União Leiria U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,163 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Famalicão U23 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). União Leiria U23 away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Famalicão U23, 1.09 for União Leiria U23. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 1 Sept

FAMALICÃO U23

LLLWWW3–4 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

UNIÃO LEIRIA U23

LLLDWL0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	9	+7	18
2	Academico Viseu U23	9	+5	18
3	Estoril U23	9	+5	17
4	Rio Ave U23	9	+7	16
5	Felgueiras U23	9	+5	15
6	Sporting Braga U23	10	+1	14
7	Famalicão U23	9	0	14
8	Vizela U23	8	+1	13
9	Moreirense U23	9	+8	12
10	Farense U23	9	−1	12
11	Benfica U23	10	−2	11
12	União Leiria U23	9	−2	11
13	Leixões U23	9	+2	10
14	Santa Clara U23	7	−5	10
15	Penafiel U23	9	0	9
16	Torreense U23	8	−3	9
17	Gil Vicente U23	9	−4	8
18	Marítimo U23	9	−6	6
19	Estrela U23	9	−8	6
20	Portimonense U23	9	−10	4