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Famalicão U23 v Estrela U23

Famalicão U23
2–1Full time
Estrela U23

Liga Revelação U23 · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:57
Famalicão U23 2–1 Estrela U23 FAMALICÃO U23 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Famalicão U23 win63%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.208
The market’s Brier score0.343

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Famalicão U23 win at 63%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Famalicão U23 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–20–17
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Famalicão U23 v Estrela U23
  4. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Famalicão U23 1–0 Estrela U23
  5. 7′A goal for Famalicão U23 on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–6
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Famalicão U23 win: 63% at kick-off, 83% now
  7. 9′We said Famalicão U23 at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–12–6
  8. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Famalicão U23 win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
  9. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Famalicão U23 2–0 Estrela U23
  10. 23′21′ and it is 2–0: Famalicão U23 have scored. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  11. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Famalicão U23 win: 63% at kick-off, 95% now
  12. 25′We said Famalicão U23 at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Famalicão U23 2–0 Estrela U23
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Famalicão U23 2–0 Estrela U23
  15. 49′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  16. 81′We said Famalicão U23 at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  17. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Famalicão U23 2–1 Estrela U23
  18. 87′Estrela U23 find the net on 85′. 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  19. FTFULL TIME Famalicão U23 2–1 Estrela U23
  20. FTFamalicão U23 2–1 Estrela U23 · Famalicão U23 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off

Famalicão U23 win63%
Draw20%
Estrela U23 win18%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Famalicão U23

Estrela U23

24Days since last match7
0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Famalicão U237−28
19Estrela U237−75

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · famalicão u23 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:44 · locked at kick-off
63% The market52%
Us63%
Market52%

We make Famalicão U23 a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:2013 OCT 13:59
Our probability · famalicão u23 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Famalicão U23 win63%52%+11
Draw20%24%−5
Estrela U23 win18%24%−6
Over 2.5 goals59%57%+2
Both teams to score54%58%−3
Over 1.5 goals81%79%+2
Over 3.5 goals37%36%+1
Famalicão U23 or draw82%76%+6
Famalicão U23 clean sheet37%––
Estrela U23 clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%
0123450 4.4 4.9 2.3 1 9.9 9.1 4.7 2 10.0 9.7 4.8 3 6.9 6.8 3.4 4 3.7 3.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Famalicão U23 down, Estrela U23 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.14
Over 2.53 of 7
Both scored2 of 7
Last meetingsFAM 2–1 EST · EST 0–0 FAM · FAM 4–0 EST · EST 0–2 FAM

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23

FAMALICÃO U23

DWLLLW2–2 · 2–1 · 3–4 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 2–1

ESTRELA U23

LDLWDL0–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Estoril U238+516
2Sporting CP U238+515
3Academico Viseu U237+414
4Rio Ave U237+312
5Felgueiras U237+311
6Farense U237011
7Vizela U236+210
8Benfica U237+110
9Sporting Braga U238010
10Santa Clara U235+29
11Moreirense U237+18
12Gil Vicente U237−18
13União Leiria U237−18
14Famalicão U237−28
15Leixões U23706
16Torreense U236−36
17Marítimo U238−56
18Penafiel U237−25
19Estrela U237−75
20Portimonense U237−54

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.