Estrela U23 v Farense U23 prediction · Liga Revelação U23

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:31

Estrela U23 1–1 Farense U23 FARENSE U23 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Farense U23 win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.815

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.782

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Farense U23 win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Estrela U23 v Farense U23
2′Little has changed for our model: Farense U23 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 34–27–39
7′We said Farense U23 at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 0–1 · 13–20–66
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Estrela U23 0–1 Farense U23
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Farense U23 win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
8′Farense U23 score on 7′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–20–66
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Estrela U23 1–1 Farense U23
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Farense U23 win: 39% at kick-off, 37% now
21′Estrela U23 find the net on 21′. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–31–36
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Farense U23 win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Estrela U23 1–1 Farense U23
45′SECOND HALF Estrela U23 1–1 Farense U23
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Farense U23 win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
56′We said Farense U23 at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 25–48–27
59′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 23–51–26
62′We said Farense U23 at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 22–53–24
71′We said Farense U23 at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 17–63–19
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Farense U23 win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
78′We said Farense U23 at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 12–74–14
83′We said Farense U23 at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Farense U23 win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
90′We said Farense U23 at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' Estrela U23
94′Estrela U23 are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 1–97–1
96′1–1 at the end. Our 39% on Farense U23 misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Estrela U23 1–1 Farense U23
FTEstrela U23 1–1 Farense U23 · Farense U23 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Farense U23 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estrela U23 34%, draw 26%, Farense U23 39%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Estrela U23 v Farense U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Estrela U23 win34%

Draw26%

Farense U23 win39%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estrela U23

Farense U23

7Days since last match7

Last match: 13 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Farense U23	8	−1	11
19	Estrela U23	8	−8	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · farense u23 winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Farense U23 a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estrela U23 v Farense U23~~1.18 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 25 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 11~~19 v 12

~~The market · Farense U23 win~~39% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Farense U23 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estrela U23 win	34%	34%	0
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Farense U23 win	39%	39%	0
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Estrela U23 or draw	61%	61%	0
Estrela U23 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Farense U23 clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.2 11.2 7.0 3.0 1 10.4 12.4 8.2 3.5 2 5.9 7.5 4.8 2.1 3 2.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estrela U23 down, Farense U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estrela U23 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Farense U23 away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Estrela U23, 1.29 for Farense U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FAR 1–0 EST · EST 2–1 FAR · FAR 4–0 EST · EST 0–2 FAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 25 Aug

ESTRELA U23

DLWDLL0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

FARENSE U23

WWLDLL2–1 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	9	+7	18
2	Estoril U23	9	+5	17
3	Academico Viseu U23	8	+5	17
4	Felgueiras U23	9	+5	15
5	Rio Ave U23	8	+3	13
6	Vizela U23	8	+1	13
7	Moreirense U23	9	+8	12
8	Sporting Braga U23	9	0	11
9	União Leiria U23	8	0	11
10	Famalicão U23	8	−1	11
11	Benfica U23	9	−1	11
12	Farense U23	8	−1	11
13	Leixões U23	9	+2	10
14	Santa Clara U23	7	−5	10
15	Penafiel U23	8	0	8
16	Gil Vicente U23	9	−4	8
17	Torreense U23	7	−5	6
18	Marítimo U23	8	−5	6
19	Estrela U23	8	−8	5
20	Portimonense U23	8	−6	4