Estoril U23 v Santa Clara U23 prediction · Liga Revelação U23

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Estoril U23DrawSanta Clara U23

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Estoril U23 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Estoril U23 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estoril U23 46%, draw 24%, Santa Clara U23 30%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Estoril U23 v Santa Clara U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Estoril U23 win46%

Draw24%

Santa Clara U23 win30%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estoril U23

Santa Clara U23

8Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Estoril U23	9	+5	17
14	Santa Clara U23	7	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · estoril u23 winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Estoril U23 a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Estoril U23 v Santa Clara U23~~1.64 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 1 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 10~~3 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estoril U23 win	46%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Santa Clara U23 win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Estoril U23 or draw	70%	–	–
Estoril U23 clean sheet	28%	–	–
Santa Clara U23 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.4 7.3 4.5 1 9.2 11.0 7.1 3.1 2 7.3 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.0 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estoril U23 down, Santa Clara U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,163 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.8% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.86 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estoril U23 at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Santa Clara U23 away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Estoril U23, 1.27 for Santa Clara U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.86

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~EST 1–2 SAN · SAN 1–1 EST · SAN 1–3 EST · EST 3–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 1 Sept

ESTORIL U23

DWDWWD2–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

SANTA CLARA U23

WDDDLD1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–7 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	9	+7	18
2	Academico Viseu U23	9	+5	18
3	Estoril U23	9	+5	17
4	Rio Ave U23	9	+7	16
5	Felgueiras U23	9	+5	15
6	Sporting Braga U23	10	+1	14
7	Famalicão U23	9	0	14
8	Vizela U23	8	+1	13
9	Moreirense U23	9	+8	12
10	Farense U23	9	−1	12
11	Benfica U23	10	−2	11
12	União Leiria U23	9	−2	11
13	Leixões U23	9	+2	10
14	Santa Clara U23	7	−5	10
15	Penafiel U23	9	0	9
16	Torreense U23	8	−3	9
17	Gil Vicente U23	9	−4	8
18	Marítimo U23	9	−6	6
19	Estrela U23	9	−8	6
20	Portimonense U23	9	−10	4