Benfica U23 v Moreirense U23 prediction · Liga Revelação U23

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Benfica U23 1–1 Moreirense U23 BENFICA U23 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Benfica U23 win~~45%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.927

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.833

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Benfica U23 win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Benfica U23 was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–22–34
1′KICK-OFF Benfica U23 v Moreirense U23
14′We said Benfica U23 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–21–57
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Benfica U23 0–1 Moreirense U23
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Benfica U23 win: 45% at kick-off, 21% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Moreirense U23 win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Benfica U23 win 43%)
15′A goal for Moreirense U23 on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–22–57
23′We said Benfica U23 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–58
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Benfica U23 1–1 Moreirense U23
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Benfica U23 win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Benfica U23 win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Moreirense U23 win 59%)
30′Benfica U23 score on 30′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 40–28–31
43′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–1 · 37–33–30
45′HALF-TIME Benfica U23 1–1 Moreirense U23
45′SECOND HALF Benfica U23 1–1 Moreirense U23
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Benfica U23 win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Benfica U23 win 36%)
55′We said Benfica U23 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–40–27
64′We said Benfica U23 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–47–24
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Benfica U23 win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
81′We said Benfica U23 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–12
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Benfica U23 win: 45% at kick-off, 14% now
86′We said Benfica U23 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Benfica U23 win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
92′We said Benfica U23 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Benfica U23 1–1 Moreirense U23
FTBenfica U23 1–1 Moreirense U23 · Benfica U23 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Benfica U23 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Benfica U23 45%, draw 22%, Moreirense U23 34%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Benfica U23 v Moreirense U23Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Benfica U23 win45%

Draw22%

Moreirense U23 win34%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Benfica U23

Moreirense U23

6Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · Liga Revelação U23

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Moreirense U23	8	+8	11
12	Benfica U23	8	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · benfica u23 winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 14 Oct 04:47 · locked at kick-off

45% The market38%

Us45%

~~Market~~38%

We make Benfica U23 a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Benfica U23 v Moreirense U23~~1.82 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 1 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 11~~12 v 7

~~The market · Benfica U23 win~~38% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Benfica U23 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Benfica U23 win	45%	38%	+7
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Moreirense U23 win	34%	37%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	65%	58%	+7
Both teams to score	65%	61%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	79%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	43%	37%	+6
Benfica U23 or draw	66%	63%	+3
Benfica U23 clean sheet	22%	–	–
Moreirense U23 clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.2 5.8 4.2 2.2 1 6.7 9.3 7.4 3.9 2 5.7 8.6 6.6 3.4 3 3.5 5.2 4.0 2.1 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Benfica U23 down, Moreirense U23 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,153 Liga Revelação U23 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Revelação U23 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.7% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Benfica U23 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Moreirense U23 away: 1.75 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Benfica U23, 1.55 for Moreirense U23. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Revelação U23 this season · since 1 Sept

BENFICA U23

LLWWWL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–3

MOREIRENSE U23

DWDDDW0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 7–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP U23	9	+7	18
2	Academico Viseu U23	8	+5	17
3	Estoril U23	8	+5	16
4	Rio Ave U23	8	+3	13
5	Vizela U23	7	+3	13
6	Felgueiras U23	8	+3	12
7	Moreirense U23	8	+8	11
8	Sporting Braga U23	9	0	11
9	União Leiria U23	8	0	11
10	Famalicão U23	8	−1	11
11	Farense U23	8	−1	11
12	Benfica U23	8	−1	10
13	Santa Clara U23	7	−5	10
14	Leixões U23	8	+2	9
15	Penafiel U23	8	0	8
16	Gil Vicente U23	9	−4	8
17	Torreense U23	7	−5	6
18	Marítimo U23	8	−5	6
19	Estrela U23	8	−8	5
20	Portimonense U23	8	−6	4