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Vitória de Sernache v Louletano

Vitória de Sernache

1–0Full time

Louletano

Liga 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Vitória de Sernache 1–0 Louletano LOULETANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Louletano win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.637

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.692

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Louletano win at 39%.
2′KICK-OFF Vitória de Sernache v Louletano
5′Little has changed for our model: Louletano 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Vitória de Sernache
37′🟨 YELLOW · 40' J. Silva · Vitória de Sernache
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Vitória de Sernache 1–0 Louletano
38′🟨 YELLOW · 40' J. Silva · Vitória de Sernache
45′HALF-TIME Vitória de Sernache 1–0 Louletano
47′SECOND HALF Vitória de Sernache 1–0 Louletano
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Louletano · On: A. Dias · Off: T. Vilela
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Louletano · On: Carlinhos · Off: T. Correia
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Vitória de Sernache
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Vitória de Sernache
76′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vitória de Sernache · On: A. Patricio · Off: J. Silva
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Vitória de Sernache · On: J. Muriel · Off: F. Garcia
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Louletano · On: M. Cruz · Off: E. Mendes
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Louletano · On: D. Teixeira · Off: T. Sousa
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Louletano · On: Y. Marinho · Off: N. Martelo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Vitória de Sernache · On: B. Henrique · Off: Lucas Daniel
FTFULL TIME Vitória de Sernache 1–0 Louletano
FTVitória de Sernache 1–0 Louletano · Louletano win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vitória de Sernache win35%

Draw26%

Louletano win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Vitória de Sernache

Formation not confirmed

1 Joao Lucas

2 J. Silva

3 D. Tavares

4 Matheus Matias

16 F. Garcia

6 R. Embalo

17 T. Marques

9 M. Almeida

19 E. Moura

10 A. Dias

20 Lucas Daniel

Coach · Joao Pereira Costa Natanael

Substitutes

12 · L. Fernandes

11 · J. Muriel

5 · M. M. Goncalves Rosario

13 · H. Graca

8 · M. Santos

18 · Dudu

7 · A. Patricio

14 · B. Henrique

15 · K. Ibouka

Louletano

Formation not confirmed

71 Marcao

27 N. Martelo

12 Gabriel Passos

3 T. Correia

97 E. Mendes

14 L. van der Gaag

8 S. Lemes

6 T. Vilela

10 V. Goncalves

19 T. Sousa

23 Daniel Paulino

Coach · Miguel Valenca

Substitutes

13 · J. Farrajota

2 · Carlinhos

29 · R. Teixeira

21 · M. Cruz

18 · D. Martins

87 · A. Dias

11 · A. Kandala

90 · D. Teixeira

17 · Y. Marinho

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vitória de Sernache

Formation not confirmed

1 Joao Lucas

2 J. Silva

3 D. Tavares

4 Matheus Matias

16 F. Garcia

6 R. Embalo

17 T. Marques

9 M. Almeida

19 E. Moura

10 A. Dias

20 Lucas Daniel

Coach · Joao Pereira Costa Natanael

Substitutes

12 · L. Fernandes

11 · J. Muriel

5 · M. M. Goncalves Rosario

13 · H. Graca

8 · M. Santos

18 · Dudu

7 · A. Patricio

14 · B. Henrique

15 · K. Ibouka

Louletano

Formation not confirmed

71 Marcao

27 N. Martelo

12 Gabriel Passos

3 T. Correia

97 E. Mendes

14 L. van der Gaag

8 S. Lemes

6 T. Vilela

10 V. Goncalves

19 T. Sousa

23 Daniel Paulino

Coach · Miguel Valenca

Substitutes

13 · J. Farrajota

2 · Carlinhos

29 · R. Teixeira

21 · M. Cruz

18 · D. Martins

87 · A. Dias

11 · A. Kandala

90 · D. Teixeira

17 · Y. Marinho

Our number · louletano winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Louletano a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · louletano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vitória de Sernache win	35%	32%	+3
Draw	26%	30%	−3
Louletano win	39%	38%	0
Over 2.5 goals	48%	41%	+6
Both teams to score	52%	48%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	66%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	26%	23%	+3
Vitória de Sernache or draw	61%	62%	0
Vitória de Sernache clean sheet	27%	–	–
Louletano clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.7 10.1 6.7 3.0 1 9.6 12.4 8.2 3.7 2 6.0 7.7 5.1 2.3 3 2.5 3.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vitória de Sernache down, Louletano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,617 Liga 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Vitória de Sernache at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Louletano away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Vitória de Sernache, 1.33 for Louletano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga 3

VITÓRIA DE SERNACHE

LDLLL0–5 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–2

LOULETANO

DLWWL0–0 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	+11	15
2	Paredes	5	+4	12
3	Atlético CP	5	+5	10
4	AD Marco 09	5	+3	10
5	Varzim	5	+3	9
6	Fafe	5	+4	8
7	Vianense	5	+1	8
8	Oliveirense	5	0	8
9	Mafra	5	+4	7
10	Louletano	5	0	7
11	Caldas	5	0	7
12	Leça	5	−1	7
13	União Santarém	6	−4	7
14	Guimaraes B	5	−1	5
15	SC Covilha	5	−2	5
16	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
17	Trofense	5	−5	4
18	São João Ver	5	−3	3
19	Pacos Ferreira	5	−5	2
20	Vitória de Sernache	5	−10	1