Vianense v São João Ver prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VianenseDrawSão João Ver

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Vianense 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vianense are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vianense 42%, draw 28%, São João Ver 31%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Vianense v São João VerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Vianense win42%

Draw28%

São João Ver win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vianense

São João Ver

8Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 11 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Vianense	6	+1	9
8	São João Ver	6	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vianense winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Vianense a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vianense v São João Ver~~1.27 – 1.04

~~Form · Liga 3 this season · since 9 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vianense win	42%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
São João Ver win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Vianense or draw	69%	–	–
Vianense clean sheet	36%	–	–
São João Ver clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 10.0 10.5 5.4 1 12.7 12.7 6.7 2.4 2 8.0 8.1 4.2 3 3.4 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vianense down, São João Ver across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,627 Liga 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Vianense at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). São João Ver away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Vianense, 1.04 for São João Ver. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 3 this season · since 9 Aug

VIANENSE

DWLDWD0–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–3

SÃO JOÃO VER

DLLDDW1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paredes	6	+4	13
2	Leça	7	0	10
3	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
4	Vianense	6	+1	9
5	Fafe	6	+4	9
6	Varzim	6	+2	9
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	−3	8
8	São João Ver	6	−2	6
9	Guimaraes B	6	−2	5
10	Trofense	6	−5	5