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Vianense v Paredes

Vianense

3–3Full time

Paredes

Liga 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Vianense 3–3 Paredes PAREDES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paredes win~~39%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.739

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.804

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Paredes win at 39%.
2′KICK-OFF Vianense v Paredes
5′5′ and it is 1–0: Vianense have scored. 1–0 · 62–23–15
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Vianense 1–0 Paredes
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Paredes win: 39% at kick-off, 15% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Vianense win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Paredes win 15%)
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Paredes
25′Paredes find the net on 26′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–23–11
29′⚽ GOAL · 26' Vianense 1–1 Paredes
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Vianense 2–1 Paredes
45′HALF-TIME Vianense 2–1 Paredes
47′SECOND HALF Vianense 2–1 Paredes
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Vianense 3–1 Paredes
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Paredes · On: D. Santos Outeiro · Off: J. Vigario
66′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Paredes · On: Erik · Off: J. Yuk
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Vianense
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Paredes
76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Gustavo Fernandes · Paredes
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Paredes · On: Ruca · Off: D. Rodrigues
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Vianense · On: Rashid · Off: H. Brito
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Vianense 3–2 Paredes
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Vianense 3–3 Paredes
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Vianense · On: Dionisio · Off: P. Soares
FTFULL TIME Vianense 3–3 Paredes
FTVianense 3–3 Paredes · Paredes win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vianense win31%

Draw30%

Paredes win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Vianense

Formation not confirmed

13 N. Silva

19 G. Faria

12 J. Faria

3 Laercio

21 H. Brito

8 B. Silva

10 Reko

68 D. Maga

7 M. Conceicao

9 P. Soares

80 R. Melro

Coach · Filipe Mesquita

Substitutes

16 · V. Sao Bento

46 · Yuri

88 · Edu

70 · J. Castro

48 · Dionisio

14 · H. Doukoure

23 · L. Nsonga

11 · Rashid

30 · A. Kamara

Paredes

Formation not confirmed

31 F. Matos

2 P. Araujo

3 D. P. Duarte

44 Gustavo Fernandes

13 J. Vigario

6 B. Val

10 D. Rodrigues

8 D. Silva

84 J. Yuk

30 F. Canario

11 F. Almara

Coach · Agostinho Bento

Substitutes

16 · T. Goncalves

23 · Z. Macedo

24 · Edu

26 · D. Santos Outeiro

5 · Ze Oliveira

21 · D. Veiga

29 · Vasco Rocha

78 · Ruca

14 · Erik

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vianense

Formation not confirmed

13 N. Silva

19 G. Faria

12 J. Faria

3 Laercio

21 H. Brito

8 B. Silva

10 Reko

68 D. Maga

7 M. Conceicao

9 P. Soares

80 R. Melro

Coach · Filipe Mesquita

Substitutes

16 · V. Sao Bento

46 · Yuri

88 · Edu

70 · J. Castro

48 · Dionisio

14 · H. Doukoure

23 · L. Nsonga

11 · Rashid

30 · A. Kamara

Paredes

Formation not confirmed

31 F. Matos

2 P. Araujo

3 D. P. Duarte

44 Gustavo Fernandes

13 J. Vigario

6 B. Val

10 D. Rodrigues

8 D. Silva

84 J. Yuk

30 F. Canario

11 F. Almara

Coach · Agostinho Bento

Substitutes

16 · T. Goncalves

23 · Z. Macedo

24 · Edu

26 · D. Santos Outeiro

5 · Ze Oliveira

21 · D. Veiga

29 · Vasco Rocha

78 · Ruca

14 · Erik

Our number · paredes winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

39% The market46%

Us39%

~~Market~~46%

We make Paredes a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · paredes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vianense win	31%	26%	+5
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Paredes win	39%	46%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	34%	46%	−11
Both teams to score	41%	50%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	61%	69%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	16%	26%	−11
Vianense or draw	61%	54%	+7
Vianense clean sheet	33%	–	–
Paredes clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.9%

0123450 12.8 13.9 7.7 2.9 1 12.2 13.1 7.3 2.7 2 5.9 6.4 3.5 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vianense down, Paredes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,617 Liga 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Vianense at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Paredes away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Vianense, 1.11 for Paredes. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga 3

VIANENSE

LDWLDW0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1

PAREDES

DWWLWW2–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	+11	15
2	Paredes	5	+4	12
3	Atlético CP	5	+5	10
4	AD Marco 09	5	+3	10
5	Varzim	5	+3	9
6	Fafe	5	+4	8
7	Vianense	5	+1	8
8	Oliveirense	5	0	8
9	Mafra	5	+4	7
10	Louletano	5	0	7
11	Caldas	5	0	7
12	Leça	5	−1	7
13	União Santarém	6	−4	7
14	Guimaraes B	5	−1	5
15	SC Covilha	5	−2	5
16	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
17	Trofense	5	−5	4
18	São João Ver	5	−3	3
19	Pacos Ferreira	5	−5	2
20	Vitória de Sernache	5	−10	1