Varzim v Guimaraes B prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VarzimDrawGuimaraes B

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Varzim 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Varzim are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Varzim 46%, draw 27%, Guimaraes B 27%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Varzim v Guimaraes BBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Varzim win46%

Draw27%

Guimaraes B win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Varzim

Guimaraes B

14Days since last match14

Last match: 11 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Varzim	6	+2	9
9	Guimaraes B	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · varzim winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Varzim a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Varzim v Guimaraes B~~1.36 – 0.96

~~Form · Liga 3 this season · since 7 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 5~~6 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Varzim win	46%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Guimaraes B win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Varzim or draw	73%	–	–
Varzim clean sheet	39%	–	–
Guimaraes B clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 9.9 9.6 4.5 1 13.5 12.5 6.1 2 9.1 8.6 4.1 3 4.2 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Varzim down, Guimaraes B across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,627 Liga 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Varzim at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Guimaraes B away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Varzim, 0.96 for Guimaraes B. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VAR 2–2 GUI · GUI 3–0 VAR · GUI 1–2 VAR · VAR 1–1 GUI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 3 this season · since 7 Aug

VARZIM

WWWLLL1–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

GUIMARAES B

LWDDLL1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paredes	6	+4	13
2	Leça	7	0	10
3	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
4	Vianense	6	+1	9
5	Fafe	6	+4	9
6	Varzim	6	+2	9
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	−3	8
8	São João Ver	6	−2	6
9	Guimaraes B	6	−2	5
10	Trofense	6	−5	5