União Santarém v Vitória de Sernache prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

União SantarémDrawVitória de Sernache

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · União Santarém 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

União Santarém are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: União Santarém 47%, draw 27%, Vitória de Sernache 26%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on União Santarém v Vitória de SernacheBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

União Santarém win47%

Draw27%

Vitória de Sernache win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueCampo Cha das Padeiras

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

União Santarém

Vitória de Sernache

11Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	União Santarém	6	−4	7
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · união santarém winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make União Santarém a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · União Santarém v Vitória de Sernache~~1.37 – 0.95

~~Form · Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~6 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
União Santarém win	47%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Vitória de Sernache win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
União Santarém or draw	74%	–	–
União Santarém clean sheet	39%	–	–
Vitória de Sernache clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 9.9 9.5 4.4 1 13.7 12.5 6.0 2 9.2 8.6 4.1 3 4.3 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+União Santarém down, Vitória de Sernache across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,627 Liga 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

União Santarém at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vitória de Sernache away: 0.67 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for União Santarém, 0.95 for Vitória de Sernache. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNI 3–0 VIT · VIT 0–2 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug

UNIÃO SANTARÉM

LDLLWW0–2 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

VITÓRIA DE SERNACHE

LDLLLW0–5 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	+11	16
2	Atlético CP	6	+8	13
3	Oliveirense	6	0	9
4	Mafra	6	+4	8
5	Louletano	6	−1	7
6	União Santarém	6	−4	7
7	Caldas	6	−3	7
8	SC Covilha	6	−2	6
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	−9	4