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União Santarém v Lusitano Évora 1911

União Santarém

3–0Full time

Lusitano Évora 1911

Liga 3 · FRI 9 OCT · Campo Cha das Padeiras

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 23:30

União Santarém 3–0 Lusitano Évora 1911 UNIÃO SANTARÉM WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said União Santarém win~~39%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.567

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.729

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said União Santarém win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: União Santarém 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–31
1′KICK-OFF União Santarém v Lusitano Évora 1911
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' União Santarém 1–0 Lusitano Évora 1911
17′União Santarém find the net on 16′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–20–9
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' União Santarém win: 39% at kick-off, 70% now
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Lusitano Évora 1911
20′We said União Santarém at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
23′A goal for União Santarém on 23′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' União Santarém 2–0 Lusitano Évora 1911
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' União Santarém win: 39% at kick-off, 91% now
26′We said União Santarém at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Lusitano Évora 1911
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' União Santarém 3–0 Lusitano Évora 1911
43′41′ and it is 3–0: União Santarém have scored. 3–0 · 99–1–0
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' União Santarém win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Lusitano Évora 1911
45′HALF-TIME União Santarém 3–0 Lusitano Évora 1911
46′SECOND HALF União Santarém 3–0 Lusitano Évora 1911
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lusitano Évora 1911 · On: M. Aguas · Off: E. Carvalho Corrected
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lusitano Évora 1911 · On: D. Lopes · Off: D. Silva
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' União Santarém · On: D. Vinhas · Off: R. Camacho Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lusitano Évora 1911 · On: D. Lopes · Off: D. Silva
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' União Santarém · On: D. Vinhas · Off: R. Camacho Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' União Santarém · On: D. Vinhas · Off: D. Almeida
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' União Santarém · On: J. Simoes · Off: Costinha
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' União Santarém · On: L. Martins · Off: B. Sousa
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' União Santarém
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Lusitano Évora 1911 · On: M. Soares · Off: E. Carvalho
FTUnião Santarém 3–0 Lusitano Évora 1911 · União Santarém win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

União Santarém win39%

Draw30%

Lusitano Évora 1911 win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 21:00

Venue · Campo Cha das Padeiras

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

União Santarém

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Ribeiro

2 B. Sousa

4 D. Almeida

5 Tiago Andre

9 Costinha

17 K. John

21 J. Nobrega

30 R. Mordomo

37 Maya

55 Helder Sa

64 R. Camacho

Coach · Goncalo Carvalho

Substitutes

47 · J. Oliveira

6 · M. Pami

7 · S. Diarra

10 · D. Ressurreicao

14 · J. Simoes

18 · G. Isnaba

20 · L. Martins

27 · A. Soumare

28 · D. Vinhas

Lusitano Évora 1911

Formation not confirmed

22 D. Martins

4 C. Santana

5 O. Diagne

8 T. Baptista

11 S. A. Andrade Male

20 D. Silva

23 D. Sequeira

37 R. Monteiro

53 E. Carvalho

71 J. Buyla

77 S. Rocha

Coach · Pedro Russiano

Substitutes

31 · M. Lemes

2 · M. Baixinho

7 · R. Batalha

9 · D. Lopes

10 · M. Aguas

– · F. Rosado

13 · Bura

17 · G. Vicente

21 · M. Soares

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

União Santarém

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Ribeiro

2 B. Sousa

4 D. Almeida

5 Tiago Andre

9 Costinha

17 K. John

21 J. Nobrega

30 R. Mordomo

37 Maya

55 Helder Sa

64 R. Camacho

Coach · Goncalo Carvalho

Substitutes

47 · J. Oliveira

6 · M. Pami

7 · S. Diarra

10 · D. Ressurreicao

14 · J. Simoes

18 · G. Isnaba

20 · L. Martins

27 · A. Soumare

28 · D. Vinhas

Lusitano Évora 1911

Formation not confirmed

22 D. Martins

4 C. Santana

5 O. Diagne

8 T. Baptista

11 S. A. Andrade Male

20 D. Silva

23 D. Sequeira

37 R. Monteiro

53 E. Carvalho

71 J. Buyla

77 S. Rocha

Coach · Pedro Russiano

Substitutes

31 · M. Lemes

2 · M. Baixinho

7 · R. Batalha

9 · D. Lopes

10 · M. Aguas

– · F. Rosado

13 · Bura

17 · G. Vicente

21 · M. Soares

Our number · união santarém winPublished 9 Oct 21:03

39% The market31%

Us39%

~~Market~~31%

We make União Santarém a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
União Santarém win	39%	31%	+8
Draw	30%	30%	0
Lusitano Évora 1911 win	31%	40%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Both teams to score	41%	46%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	61%	64%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	16%	20%	−4
União Santarém or draw	69%	60%	+8
União Santarém clean sheet	38%	–	–
Lusitano Évora 1911 clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 12.8 12.3 5.9 1 14.0 13.2 6.4 2.1 2 7.7 7.3 3.5 3 2.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+União Santarém down, Lusitano Évora 1911 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,616 Liga 3 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

União Santarém at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lusitano Évora 1911 away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for União Santarém, 0.96 for Lusitano Évora 1911. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LUS 1–0 UNI · UNI 1–0 LUS

Form · last six in Liga 3

UNIÃO SANTARÉM

DLDLLW2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 2–1

LUSITANO ÉVORA 1911

LLDWLD0–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	+11	15
2	Paredes	5	+4	12
3	Atlético CP	5	+5	10
4	AD Marco 09	5	+3	10
5	Varzim	5	+3	9
6	Fafe	5	+4	8
7	Vianense	5	+1	8
8	Oliveirense	5	0	8
9	Mafra	5	+4	7
10	Louletano	5	0	7
11	Caldas	5	0	7
12	Leça	5	−1	7
13	Guimaraes B	5	−1	5
14	Lusitano Évora 1911	5	−1	5
15	SC Covilha	5	−2	5
16	Trofense	5	−5	4
17	União Santarém	5	−7	4
18	São João Ver	5	−3	3
19	Pacos Ferreira	5	−5	2
20	Vitória de Sernache	5	−10	1