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SC Covilha v Oliveirense

SC Covilha

0–0Full time

Oliveirense

Liga 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

SC Covilha 0–0 Oliveirense OLIVEIRENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oliveirense win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.805

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.751

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oliveirense win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Oliveirense was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 34–27–39
1′KICK-OFF SC Covilha v Oliveirense
2′Much as we predicted: Oliveirense was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 34–27–39
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' SC Covilha
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' SC Covilha
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' SC Covilha
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Oliveirense win 31%)
45′HALF-TIME SC Covilha 0–0 Oliveirense
46′SECOND HALF SC Covilha 0–0 Oliveirense
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SC Covilha · On: G. Cascalheira · Off: R. Coelho
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' SC Covilha
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Oliveirense · On: R. Marques · Off: T. Fonseca Corrected
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' SC Covilha
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' SC Covilha · On: D. Silva · Off: E. Gomes Silva
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' SC Covilha · On: Jailson · Off: Danny
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' SC Covilha · On: J. Cruz · Off: H. Innusah
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Oliveirense
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' SC Covilha · On: Guilherme Silva · Off: C. Niang Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' SC Covilha · On: B. A. Isaac Djei · Off: J. Pacheco Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' SC Covilha
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Oliveirense
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' SC Covilha
FTFULL TIME SC Covilha 0–0 Oliveirense
FTSC Covilha 0–0 Oliveirense · Oliveirense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SC Covilha win34%

Draw27%

Oliveirense win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

SC Covilha

Formation not confirmed

1 L. G. Pinto Galil

2 Kauan

22 E. Gomes Silva

23 E. Gomes

45 M. Aidara

5 H. Innusah

6 A. Barbosa

8 R. Coelho

7 Danny

18 J. Pacheco

99 C. Niang

Coach · Rui Mota

Substitutes

12 · F. Duarte

4 · D. Silva

21 · J. Cruz

55 · T. Silva

80 · G. Cascalheira

10 · M. Peixoto

9 · Guilherme Silva

25 · B. A. Isaac Djei

96 · Jailson

Oliveirense

Formation not confirmed

33 U. Perez

23 Johny

24 G. Loureiro

14 S. Martins

55 L. Bastos

6 J. Daniel

70 Kiko Felix

8 V. Braga

22 R. Rei

95 T. Fonseca

10 Joao Tavares

Coach · Pedro Ribeiro

Substitutes

1 · R. Dabo

3 · G. Silva

4 · Joao Felix

16 · R. P. Goncalves

78 · D. Sancho

80 · K. Onohara

9 · R. Marques

27 · M. Monteiro

7 · Y. Rodriguez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

SC Covilha

Formation not confirmed

1 L. G. Pinto Galil

2 Kauan

22 E. Gomes Silva

23 E. Gomes

45 M. Aidara

5 H. Innusah

6 A. Barbosa

8 R. Coelho

7 Danny

18 J. Pacheco

99 C. Niang

Coach · Rui Mota

Substitutes

12 · F. Duarte

4 · D. Silva

21 · J. Cruz

55 · T. Silva

80 · G. Cascalheira

10 · M. Peixoto

9 · Guilherme Silva

25 · B. A. Isaac Djei

96 · Jailson

Oliveirense

Formation not confirmed

33 U. Perez

23 Johny

24 G. Loureiro

14 S. Martins

55 L. Bastos

6 J. Daniel

70 Kiko Felix

8 V. Braga

22 R. Rei

95 T. Fonseca

10 Joao Tavares

Coach · Pedro Ribeiro

Substitutes

1 · R. Dabo

3 · G. Silva

4 · Joao Felix

16 · R. P. Goncalves

78 · D. Sancho

80 · K. Onohara

9 · R. Marques

27 · M. Monteiro

7 · Y. Rodriguez

Our number · oliveirense winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Oliveirense a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · oliveirense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Covilha win	34%	32%	+3
Draw	27%	29%	−3
Oliveirense win	39%	39%	0
Over 2.5 goals	45%	42%	+3
Both teams to score	50%	49%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	67%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	22%	+2
SC Covilha or draw	61%	61%	0
SC Covilha clean sheet	28%	–	–
Oliveirense clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.6 10.9 7.0 3.1 1 10.1 12.5 8.1 3.5 2 5.9 7.4 4.8 2.1 3 2.4 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Covilha down, Oliveirense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,617 Liga 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

SC Covilha at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Oliveirense away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for SC Covilha, 1.30 for Oliveirense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga 3

SC COVILHA

DWDLLD1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–2

OLIVEIRENSE

DDDWLW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	+11	15
2	Paredes	5	+4	12
3	Atlético CP	5	+5	10
4	AD Marco 09	5	+3	10
5	Varzim	5	+3	9
6	Fafe	5	+4	8
7	Vianense	5	+1	8
8	Oliveirense	5	0	8
9	Mafra	5	+4	7
10	Louletano	5	0	7
11	Caldas	5	0	7
12	Leça	5	−1	7
13	União Santarém	6	−4	7
14	Guimaraes B	5	−1	5
15	SC Covilha	5	−2	5
16	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
17	Trofense	5	−5	4
18	São João Ver	5	−3	3
19	Pacos Ferreira	5	−5	2
20	Vitória de Sernache	5	−10	1