São João Ver v Varzim prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

São João Ver 2–1 Varzim VARZIM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Varzim win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.679

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.712

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Varzim win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF São João Ver v Varzim
3′Much as we predicted: Varzim was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 33–29–39
6′Much as we predicted: Varzim was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 32–29–38
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' São João Ver 0–1 Varzim
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' São João Ver
20′D. Rebelo scores for Varzim on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–21–69
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Varzim win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Varzim win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Varzim win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Varzim win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Varzim win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Varzim win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
23′D. Rebelo scores for Varzim on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–21–69
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Varzim win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Varzim win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' São João Ver
38′We published Varzim at 39%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 8–21–72
39′We published Varzim at 39%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 7–21–72
45′HALF-TIME São João Ver 0–1 Varzim
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Varzim win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 12' São João Ver 0–1 Varzim · D. Rebelo (assist A. Morais Guedes)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Jesse · São João Ver
45′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Luan Capanni · São João Ver
46′SECOND HALF São João Ver 0–1 Varzim
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' São João Ver · On: T. Campas · Off: Jesse
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' São João Ver
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Varzim · On: J. Couto · Off: D. Benchi
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' São João Ver · On: R. Vilela · Off: Ruca Morgado
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' São João Ver · On: Gui Azevedo · Off: J. Machado
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Varzim · On: L. Filipe · Off: Jordao
70′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Varzim
71′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Varzim
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Varzim
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' São João Ver 1–1 Varzim
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' São João Ver · On: Zequinha · Off: M. Camara
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Varzim
79′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Varzim
80′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Varzim
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' São João Ver 2–1 Varzim
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' São João Ver · On: J. O. Carvalho · Off: Luan Capanni
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Varzim
FTFULL TIME São João Ver 2–1 Varzim
FTSão João Ver 2–1 Varzim · Varzim win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

São João Ver win33%

Draw28%

Varzim win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Line-ups

São João Ver

Varzim

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

São João Ver

Varzim

28Days since last match29

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Varzim	5	+3	9
19	São João Ver	5	−3	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

São João Ver

Formation not confirmed

30 J. Junior

25 Ruca Morgado

33 Washington

40 Joao Matos

55 M. Vilela

16 Jesse

6 M. Camara

17 Luisinho

29 R. Valente

7 J. Machado

90 Luan Capanni

Coach · Sandro

Substitutes

1 · P. Virginia

21 · Rui Bruno

5 · M. Ventura

61 · R. Vilela

8 · T. Campas

45 · Pereira. I

11 · Gui Azevedo

19 · J. O. Carvalho

87 · Zequinha

Varzim

Formation not confirmed

49 P. Costa

13 Jordao

26 Ruben

3 P. Nuno

19 A. Morais Guedes

55 D. Rebelo

10 M. Moreno Tavares Cunha

27 Boloto

11 D. Benchi

9 R. Pereira

7 P. M. Serra Matos

Coach · Carlos Fernandes

Substitutes

51 · Momo Mbaye

17 · L. Filipe

44 · M. Vila Cova

18 · Stitch

4 · Kaua Vinicius

6 · David Peres

25 · J. Couto

95 · Tim

8 · R. Oliveira

Our number · varzim winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Varzim a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · varzim win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
São João Ver win	33%	31%	+2
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Varzim win	39%	38%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	40%	0
Both teams to score	46%	48%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	65%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−1
São João Ver or draw	61%	62%	−1
São João Ver clean sheet	30%	–	–
Varzim clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.0 12.1 7.3 3.0 1 10.9 13.0 7.9 3.2 2 5.9 7.1 4.3 3 2.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+São João Ver down, Varzim across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,621 Liga 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

São João Ver at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Varzim away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for São João Ver, 1.22 for Varzim. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SAO 1–1 VAR · VAR 4–0 SAO · SAO 4–1 VAR · VAR 2–0 SAO

Form · last six in Liga 3

SÃO JOÃO VER

WDLLDD2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

VARZIM

DWWWLL2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	+11	15
2	Paredes	6	+4	13
3	Atlético CP	5	+5	10
4	Leça	6	+1	10
5	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
6	Varzim	5	+3	9
7	Vianense	6	+1	9
8	Oliveirense	6	0	9
9	Fafe	5	+4	8
10	Mafra	5	+4	7
11	Caldas	5	0	7
12	Louletano	6	−1	7
13	União Santarém	6	−4	7
14	SC Covilha	6	−2	6
15	Guimaraes B	5	−1	5
16	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
17	Trofense	5	−5	4
18	Vitória de Sernache	6	−9	4
19	São João Ver	5	−3	3
20	Pacos Ferreira	5	−5	2