Paredes v Trofense prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Paredes 4–0 Trofense PAREDES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paredes win~~47%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.424

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.206

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Paredes win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Paredes was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
1′KICK-OFF Paredes v Trofense
8′Paredes score on 8′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Paredes 1–0 Trofense
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Paredes win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
9′We published Paredes at 47%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Paredes win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
20′Paredes find the net on 20′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Paredes 2–0 Trofense
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Paredes win: 47% at kick-off, 94% now
21′We published Paredes at 47%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
28′We published Paredes at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Paredes
43′A goal for Paredes on 42′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–0–0
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Paredes 3–0 Trofense
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Paredes win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
45′We published Paredes at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Paredes 3–0 Trofense
46′SECOND HALF Paredes 3–0 Trofense
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Paredes · On: Vasco Rocha · Off: B. Val
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Paredes · On: J. Yuk · Off: F. Almara
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Paredes · On: F. Canario · Off: Erik
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Trofense · On: Juninho · Off: Kiki
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Trofense · On: Kaua Souza · Off: Kevyn Santos
72′Paredes score on 72′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Paredes 4–0 Trofense
73′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Paredes · On: Z. Macedo · Off: P. Araujo
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Paredes · On: Ruca · Off: Miguel
FTFULL TIME Paredes 4–0 Trofense
FTParedes 4–0 Trofense · Paredes win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Paredes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Paredes 47%, draw 29%, Trofense 24%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Paredes v TrofenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Paredes win47%

Draw29%

Trofense win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMunicipal das Laranjeiras

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paredes

Trofense

6Days since last match13

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 11 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paredes winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market63%

Us47%

~~Market~~63%

We make Paredes a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Paredes v Trofense~~1.27 – 0.82

~~Form · Liga 3 this season · since 7 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 5~~1 v 10

~~The market · Paredes win~~63% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Paredes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paredes win	47%	63%	−16
Draw	29%	22%	+7
Trofense win	24%	15%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	35%	52%	−17
Both teams to score	40%	48%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	61%	74%	−13
Over 3.5 goals	16%	31%	−15
Paredes or draw	76%	85%	−9
Paredes clean sheet	44%	–	–
Trofense clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 12.5 10.4 4.2 1 15.8 12.6 5.2 2 9.9 8.0 3.3 3 4.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paredes down, Trofense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,627 Liga 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paredes at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Trofense away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Paredes, 0.82 for Trofense. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TRO 0–0 PAR · PAR 0–0 TRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 3 this season · since 7 Aug

PAREDES

WWLWWD3–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–3

TROFENSE

LLWDLD0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paredes	6	+4	13
2	Leça	7	0	10
3	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
4	Vianense	6	+1	9
5	Fafe	6	+4	9
6	Varzim	6	+2	9
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	−3	8
8	São João Ver	6	−2	6
9	Guimaraes B	6	−2	5
10	Trofense	6	−5	5