Pacos Ferreira v Leça prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 23:27

Pacos Ferreira 1–0 Leça PACOS FERREIRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pacos Ferreira win~~39%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.567

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.617

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pacos Ferreira win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pacos Ferreira 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–26–35
1′KICK-OFF Pacos Ferreira v Leça
33′We said Pacos Ferreira at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–10
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Leça
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Pacos Ferreira 1–0 Leça
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Pacos Ferreira win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
34′A goal for Pacos Ferreira on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
37′We said Pacos Ferreira at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Leça
45′SECOND HALF Pacos Ferreira 1–0 Leça
46′HALF-TIME Pacos Ferreira 1–0 Leça
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Pacos Ferreira
56′We said Pacos Ferreira at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Leça · On: Berna · Off: R. Ferreira
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Leça · On: Diego Fernandes · Off: N. Reis
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Pacos Ferreira
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Pacos Ferreira
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Pacos Ferreira win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Pacos Ferreira · On: Sacra · Off: Platiny
67′We said Pacos Ferreira at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Pacos Ferreira
75′We said Pacos Ferreira at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
76′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Leça · On: J. Makala · Off: B. Mesquita
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Pacos Ferreira · On: Caio Rafael · Off: T. Castro
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Pacos Ferreira · On: Vitinho · Off: Joao Pedro
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Pacos Ferreira win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
82′We said Pacos Ferreira at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–9–1
88′We said Pacos Ferreira at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Pacos Ferreira · On: D. Castro · Off: T. Mesquita
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Pacos Ferreira · On: I. Vulpe · Off: N. Cunha
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Leça · On: C. Avelino · Off: D. Pereira
94′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Leça · On: M. Miranda · Off: F. Balde
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Leça
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Pacos Ferreira win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
96′1–0 at the end. Our 39% on Pacos Ferreira comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Pacos Ferreira 1–0 Leça
FTPacos Ferreira 1–0 Leça · Pacos Ferreira win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Pacos Ferreira just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Pacos Ferreira 39%, draw 26%, Leça 35%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Pacos Ferreira v LeçaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Pacos Ferreira win39%

Draw26%

Leça win35%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pacos Ferreira

Leça

12Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Leça	6	+1	10
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pacos ferreira winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Pacos Ferreira a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pacos Ferreira v Leça~~1.32 – 1.24

~~Form · Liga 3 this season · since 9 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 10~~8 v 2

~~The market · Pacos Ferreira win~~36% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pacos Ferreira win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pacos Ferreira win	39%	36%	+3
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Leça win	35%	36%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
Pacos Ferreira or draw	65%	64%	+1
Pacos Ferreira clean sheet	29%	–	–
Leça clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.8 9.7 5.9 2.5 1 10.3 12.4 7.7 3.2 2 6.7 8.2 5.1 2.1 3 3.0 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pacos Ferreira down, Leça across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,626 Liga 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Pacos Ferreira at home: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 3). Leça away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Pacos Ferreira, 1.24 for Leça. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 3 this season · since 9 Aug

PACOS FERREIRA

LLLDDW1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

LEÇA

DLWLWW1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paredes	6	+4	13
2	Leça	6	+1	10
3	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
4	Vianense	6	+1	9
5	Fafe	6	+4	9
6	Varzim	6	+2	9
7	São João Ver	6	−2	6
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	−4	5
9	Trofense	6	−5	5
10	Guimaraes B	6	−2	5