Oliveirense v CF Os Belenenses prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OliveirenseDrawCF Os Belenenses

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · CF Os Belenenses 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CF Os Belenenses are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oliveirense 32%, draw 25%, CF Os Belenenses 43%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Oliveirense v CF Os BelenensesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Oliveirense win32%

Draw25%

CF Os Belenenses win43%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueEstadio Carlos Osorio

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oliveirense

CF Os Belenenses

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cf os belenenses winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make CF Os Belenenses a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oliveirense v CF Os Belenenses~~1.24 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oliveirense win	32%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
CF Os Belenenses win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Oliveirense or draw	57%	–	–
Oliveirense clean sheet	23%	–	–
CF Os Belenenses clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.8 10.0 7.2 3.6 1 8.4 11.8 8.7 4.3 2 5.1 7.3 5.3 2.7 3 2.1 3.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oliveirense down, CF Os Belenenses across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 Liga 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oliveirense at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). CF Os Belenenses away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Oliveirense, 1.48 for CF Os Belenenses. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~OLI 1–2 CFO · CFO 1–0 OLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug

OLIVEIRENSE

DWLWDD1–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

CF OS BELENENSES

WWWWWD1–0 · 3–1 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	+11	16
2	Atlético CP	6	+8	13
3	Oliveirense	7	0	10
4	Mafra	7	+4	9
5	Caldas	7	−3	8
6	União Santarém	6	−4	7
7	Louletano	6	−1	7
8	SC Covilha	6	−2	6
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	7	−4	6
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	−9	4