Mafra v CF Os Belenenses prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Mafra 2–2 CF Os Belenenses CF OS BELENENSES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CF Os Belenenses win~~43%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.850

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.760

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CF Os Belenenses win at 43%.
1′1′ and it is 0–1: CF Os Belenenses have scored. 0–1 · 13–18–68
1′KICK-OFF Mafra v CF Os Belenenses
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
8′1′ and it is 0–1: CF Os Belenenses have scored. 0–1 · 13–19–69
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
13′We published CF Os Belenenses at 43%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 12–19–69
19′We published CF Os Belenenses at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
23′We published CF Os Belenenses at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
28′⚽ GOAL · 1' Mafra 0–1 CF Os Belenenses · D. Horta Leitao
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–71
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 8–20–72
45′SECOND HALF Mafra 0–1 CF Os Belenenses
46′HALF-TIME Mafra 0–1 CF Os Belenenses
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
46′SECOND HALF Mafra 0–1 CF Os Belenenses
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CF Os Belenenses · On: Chamito · Off: E. Souza
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' CF Os Belenenses win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Mafra 0–2 CF Os Belenenses · D. Horta Leitao
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Mafra 0–2 CF Os Belenenses
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Mafra · On: A. Ngom · Off: J. Silva
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Mafra · On: J. Ferreira · Off: Leandro Alves
66′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Mafra · On: Xico · Off: C. Raposo
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Mafra 1–2 CF Os Belenenses · Chamito
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Mafra 1–2 CF Os Belenenses
74′⚽ GOAL · 72' Mafra 1–2 CF Os Belenenses · M. Niang
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' CF Os Belenenses · On: D. Ferreira · Off: A. Afonso
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Mafra · On: L. Neves · Off: R. Matos
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Mafra 2–2 CF Os Belenenses · M. Niang
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Mafra 2–2 CF Os Belenenses
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' CF Os Belenenses
86′⚽ GOAL · 83' Mafra 2–2 CF Os Belenenses · L. Neves
86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' CF Os Belenenses
FTFULL TIME Mafra 2–2 CF Os Belenenses
FTMafra 2–2 CF Os Belenenses · CF Os Belenenses win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Mafra win32%

Draw25%

CF Os Belenenses win43%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

VenueEstadio Municipal de Mafra

Line-ups

Mafra

CF Os Belenenses

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mafra

CF Os Belenenses

29Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	+11	15
10	Mafra	5	+4	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Mafra

Formation not confirmed

33 P. Silva

13 C. Raposo

2 M. Camara

5 G. Cardoso

– J. Silva

11 Leandro Alves

3 K. Alves

37 A. Ba

7 R. Matos

9 M. Niang

46 B. Sambu

Coach · Tim Sparv

Substitutes

1 · F. Lemos

22 · Xico

90 · R. Moreira

66 · J. Ferreira

6 · Y. Maiga

8 · L. Neves

42 · A. Ngom

10 · Lucas Gabriel

18 · Goba Zakpa

17 · A. Balde

20 · A. Deme

CF Os Belenenses

Formation not confirmed

99 G. Oliveira

15 J. Lucas

4 Nuno Tomas

58 D. Monteiro

17 D. Horta Leitao

21 T. Morgado

14 A. Afonso

66 Cesinha

27 E. Barros

9 E. Souza

23 Bruninho

Coach · –

Substitutes

95 · Diego

85 · D. Varela

39 · A. Pinto

8 · J. Herrera

81 · D. Ferreira

11 · J. Oliveira

20 · T. Moninhas

33 · Chamito

Our number · cf os belenenses winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make CF Os Belenenses a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cf os belenenses win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mafra win	32%	31%	+1
Draw	25%	29%	−4
CF Os Belenenses win	43%	40%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	52%	46%	+6
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	70%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	30%	26%	+4
Mafra or draw	57%	60%	−3
Mafra clean sheet	22%	–	–
CF Os Belenenses clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.4 9.6 7.2 3.6 1 8.0 11.7 8.9 4.5 2 5.0 7.4 5.5 2.8 3 2.1 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mafra down, CF Os Belenenses across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,621 Liga 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mafra at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). CF Os Belenenses away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Mafra, 1.51 for CF Os Belenenses. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CFO 3–1 MAF · MAF 1–4 CFO · CFO 2–1 MAF · MAF 1–1 CFO

Form · last six in Liga 3

MAFRA

LWDLWL1–3 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

CF OS BELENENSES

WWWWWW3–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	+11	15
2	Paredes	6	+4	13
3	Atlético CP	5	+5	10
4	Leça	6	+1	10
5	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
6	Varzim	5	+3	9
7	Vianense	6	+1	9
8	Oliveirense	6	0	9
9	Fafe	5	+4	8
10	Mafra	5	+4	7
11	Caldas	5	0	7
12	Louletano	6	−1	7
13	União Santarém	6	−4	7
14	SC Covilha	6	−2	6
15	Guimaraes B	5	−1	5
16	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
17	Trofense	5	−5	4
18	Vitória de Sernache	6	−9	4
19	São João Ver	5	−3	3
20	Pacos Ferreira	5	−5	2