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Lusitano Évora 1911 v Oliveirense

Lusitano Évora 1911

2–2Full time

Oliveirense

Liga 3 · SAT 24 OCT · Campo Estrela

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Lusitano Évora 1911 2–2 Oliveirense LUSITANO ÉVORA 1911 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lusitano Évora 1911 win~~37%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.786

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.788

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lusitano Évora 1911 win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lusitano Évora 1911 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–36
1′KICK-OFF Lusitano Évora 1911 v Oliveirense
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Lusitano Évora 1911
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Lusitano Évora 1911 win 34%)
40′Lusitano Évora 1911 score on 40′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–21–8
40′We said Lusitano Évora 1911 at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–8
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Lusitano Évora 1911 1–0 Oliveirense
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Lusitano Évora 1911 win: 37% at kick-off, 70% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Lusitano Évora 1911 win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 39%)
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 71–21–8
45′HALF-TIME Lusitano Évora 1911 1–0 Oliveirense
46′SECOND HALF Lusitano Évora 1911 1–0 Oliveirense
48′Oliveirense find the net on 48′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–44–28
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Lusitano Évora 1911 1–1 Oliveirense
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Lusitano Évora 1911 win: 37% at kick-off, 28% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Lusitano Évora 1911 win 72%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Lusitano Évora 1911 win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
52′A goal for Lusitano Évora 1911 on 51′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 74–20–6
52′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 74–20–6
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Lusitano Évora 1911 2–1 Oliveirense
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Lusitano Évora 1911 win: 37% at kick-off, 74% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Lusitano Évora 1911 win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 46%)
55′We said Lusitano Évora 1911 at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Oliveirense
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Lusitano Évora 1911
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Lusitano Évora 1911 win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Oliveirense
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Lusitano Évora 1911 · On: E. Carvalho · Off: R. Batalha
66′We said Lusitano Évora 1911 at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Oliveirense · On: V. Santos · Off: Johny
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Oliveirense · On: D. Sancho · Off: Kiko Felix
69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Oliveirense · On: Y. Rodriguez · Off: T. Fonseca
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Lusitano Évora 1911 · On: D. Silva · Off: S. Rocha
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Lusitano Évora 1911
74′We said Lusitano Évora 1911 at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Lusitano Évora 1911
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lusitano Évora 1911 · On: O. Diagne · Off: M. Aguas
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lusitano Évora 1911 · On: L. Mota · Off: D. Lopes
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lusitano Évora 1911 · On: R. Monteiro · Off: M. Soares
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Lusitano Évora 1911 win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Lusitano Évora 1911
78′Oliveirense score on 78′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 13–75–12
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Lusitano Évora 1911 2–2 Oliveirense
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Lusitano Évora 1911 win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Lusitano Évora 1911 win 88%)
79′We said Lusitano Évora 1911 at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 2–2 · 12–77–12
79′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 12–77–12
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Lusitano Évora 1911
82′We said Lusitano Évora 1911 at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–82–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Lusitano Évora 1911 win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Oliveirense · On: R. Marques · Off: Joao Tavares
89′We said Lusitano Évora 1911 at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–91–4
FTFULL TIME Lusitano Évora 1911 2–2 Oliveirense
FTLusitano Évora 1911 2–2 Oliveirense · Lusitano Évora 1911 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lusitano Évora 1911 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Lusitano Évora 1911 37%, draw 28%, Oliveirense 36%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Lusitano Évora 1911 v OliveirenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Lusitano Évora 1911 win37%

Draw28%

Oliveirense win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueCampo Estrela

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lusitano Évora 1911

Oliveirense

15Days since last match14

Last match: 9 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

Last match: 10 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Oliveirense	6	0	9
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lusitano évora 1911 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

37% The market45%

Us37%

~~Market~~45%

We make Lusitano Évora 1911 a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lusitano Évora 1911 v Oliveirense~~1.19 – 1.17

~~Form · Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~9 v 3

~~The market · Lusitano Évora 1911 win~~45% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lusitano Évora 1911 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lusitano Évora 1911 win	37%	45%	−8
Draw	28%	28%	0
Oliveirense win	36%	26%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	42%	42%	0
Both teams to score	47%	48%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	22%	−1
Lusitano Évora 1911 or draw	64%	74%	−10
Lusitano Évora 1911 clean sheet	32%	–	–
Oliveirense clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.7 11.2 6.4 2.6 1 11.5 12.7 7.4 3.0 2 6.7 7.6 4.4 3 2.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lusitano Évora 1911 down, Oliveirense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,627 Liga 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Lusitano Évora 1911 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Oliveirense away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Lusitano Évora 1911, 1.17 for Oliveirense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug

LUSITANO ÉVORA 1911

LDWLDL0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–3

OLIVEIRENSE

DDWLWD0–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	+11	16
2	Atlético CP	6	+8	13
3	Oliveirense	6	0	9
4	Mafra	6	+4	8
5	Louletano	6	−1	7
6	União Santarém	6	−4	7
7	Caldas	6	−3	7
8	SC Covilha	6	−2	6
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	−9	4