Louletano v Atlético CP prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LouletanoDrawAtlético CP

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atlético CP 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Atlético CP just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Louletano 34%, draw 28%, Atlético CP 38%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Louletano v Atlético CPBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Louletano win34%

Draw28%

Atlético CP win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueEstadio Algarve

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Louletano

Atlético CP

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Atlético CP	6	+8	13
5	Louletano	6	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético cp winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Atlético CP a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Louletano v Atlético CP~~1.12 – 1.21

~~Form · Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~5 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Louletano win	34%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Atlético CP win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Louletano or draw	62%	–	–
Louletano clean sheet	30%	–	–
Atlético CP clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.8 11.9 7.1 2.9 1 11.1 12.9 7.8 3.2 2 6.1 7.3 4.4 3 2.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Louletano down, Atlético CP across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,627 Liga 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Louletano at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Atlético CP away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Louletano, 1.21 for Atlético CP. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug

LOULETANO

DLWWLL0–0 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

ATLÉTICO CP

WDWWLW1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	+11	16
2	Atlético CP	6	+8	13
3	Oliveirense	6	0	9
4	Mafra	6	+4	8
5	Louletano	6	−1	7
6	União Santarém	6	−4	7
7	Caldas	6	−3	7
8	SC Covilha	6	−2	6
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	−9	4