Leça v Varzim prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LeçaDrawVarzim

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Leça 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Leça just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Leça 37%, draw 27%, Varzim 36%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Leça v VarzimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Leça win37%

Draw27%

Varzim win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueEstadio do Leca Futebol Clube

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leça

Varzim

8Days since last match20

Last match: 23 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

Last match: 11 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Leça	7	0	10
6	Varzim	6	+2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leça winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Leça a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leça v Varzim~~1.26 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 9 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 9~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leça win	37%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Varzim win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Leça or draw	64%	–	–
Leça clean sheet	29%	–	–
Varzim clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.3 10.4 6.3 2.6 1 10.6 12.6 7.8 3.2 2 6.6 8.0 4.9 2.0 3 2.8 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leça down, Varzim across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 Liga 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Leça at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Varzim away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Leça, 1.23 for Varzim. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 9 Aug

LEÇA

LWLWWL0–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

VARZIM

WWWLLL1–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paredes	7	+8	16
2	Leça	7	0	10
3	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
4	Vianense	6	+1	9
5	Fafe	6	+4	9
6	Varzim	6	+2	9
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	−3	8
8	São João Ver	6	−2	6
9	Guimaraes B	6	−2	5
10	Trofense	7	−9	5