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Leça v AD Marco 09

Leça

2–0Full time

AD Marco 09

Liga 3 · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Leça 2–0 AD Marco 09 LEÇA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leça win~~41%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.519

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.523

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leça win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Leça v AD Marco 09
2′Little has changed for our model: Leça 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Leça 1–0 AD Marco 09
26′N. Pereira scores for Leça on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–9
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Leça win: 41% at kick-off, 72% now
45′We said Leça at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′HALF-TIME Leça 1–0 AD Marco 09
46′SECOND HALF Leça 1–0 AD Marco 09
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' AD Marco 09 · On: B. Traore · Off: Victor Thiago
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Leça · On: Torres Romario · Off: N. Reis
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Leça · On: David Rebelo · Off: M. Fortes
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' AD Marco 09 · On: Thalles · Off: Ka
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' AD Marco 09 · On: C. Pedrosa · Off: J. Guerrero
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Leça · On: J. Makala · Off: B. Mesquita
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Leça · On: B. Fortunato · Off: D. Pereira
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Leça · On: S. Sousa · Off: A. Coutinho
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Leça 2–0 AD Marco 09
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' AD Marco 09
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' AD Marco 09
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' AD Marco 09
FTFULL TIME Leça 2–0 AD Marco 09
FTLeça 2–0 AD Marco 09 · Leça win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Leça win41%

Draw28%

AD Marco 09 win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

Venue · Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Leça

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Paiva

23 D. Ribeiro

14 D. Maneta

22 A. Coutinho

9 M. Fortes

41 Cassio Scheid

8 N. Pereira

33 D. Pereira

11 B. Mesquita

10 N. Reis

20 R. Ferreira

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · Daniel Bruno

16 · S. Sousa

5 · D. Nunes

18 · M. Miranda

6 · B. Fortunato

88 · T. Augusto

30 · Torres Romario

29 · J. Makala

31 · David Rebelo

AD Marco 09

Formation not confirmed

64 T. Martins

8 Erivaldo

2 Victor Thiago

4 Chicao

82 J. Guerrero

23 J. L. Araujo Guilherme

19 P. Ribeiro

77 R. Barrett

10 L. Garro

9 Ka

14 P. Pedro

Coach · Milton Mendes

Substitutes

26 · Ze Couto

32 · R. Rego

21 · C. Pedrosa

20 · B. Traore

6 · F. Pacheco

18 · F. Fernandes

35 · J. Pedro

11 · Thalles

17 · J. Gata

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Leça

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Paiva

23 D. Ribeiro

14 D. Maneta

22 A. Coutinho

9 M. Fortes

41 Cassio Scheid

8 N. Pereira

33 D. Pereira

11 B. Mesquita

10 N. Reis

20 R. Ferreira

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · Daniel Bruno

16 · S. Sousa

5 · D. Nunes

18 · M. Miranda

6 · B. Fortunato

88 · T. Augusto

30 · Torres Romario

29 · J. Makala

31 · David Rebelo

AD Marco 09

Formation not confirmed

64 T. Martins

8 Erivaldo

2 Victor Thiago

4 Chicao

82 J. Guerrero

23 J. L. Araujo Guilherme

19 P. Ribeiro

77 R. Barrett

10 L. Garro

9 Ka

14 P. Pedro

Coach · Milton Mendes

Substitutes

26 · Ze Couto

32 · R. Rego

21 · C. Pedrosa

20 · B. Traore

6 · F. Pacheco

18 · F. Fernandes

35 · J. Pedro

11 · Thalles

17 · J. Gata

Our number · leça winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

41% The market41%

Us41%

~~Market~~41%

We make Leça a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · leça win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leça win	41%	41%	0
Draw	28%	29%	−1
AD Marco 09 win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	42%	−2
Both teams to score	46%	48%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	67%	0
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−3
Leça or draw	69%	70%	−1
Leça clean sheet	35%	–	–
AD Marco 09 clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.0 10.5 5.5 1 12.6 12.9 6.8 2.4 2 7.9 8.1 4.3 3 3.3 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leça down, AD Marco 09 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,617 Liga 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Leça at home: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). AD Marco 09 away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Leça, 1.05 for AD Marco 09. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga 3

LEÇA

DLWLW1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–1

AD MARCO 09

DWLWDW2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	+11	15
2	Paredes	5	+4	12
3	Atlético CP	5	+5	10
4	AD Marco 09	5	+3	10
5	Varzim	5	+3	9
6	Fafe	5	+4	8
7	Vianense	5	+1	8
8	Oliveirense	5	0	8
9	Mafra	5	+4	7
10	Louletano	5	0	7
11	Caldas	5	0	7
12	Leça	5	−1	7
13	União Santarém	6	−4	7
14	Guimaraes B	5	−1	5
15	SC Covilha	5	−2	5
16	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
17	Trofense	5	−5	4
18	São João Ver	5	−3	3
19	Pacos Ferreira	5	−5	2
20	Vitória de Sernache	5	−10	1