Guimaraes B v Pacos Ferreira prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Guimaraes B 0–1 Pacos Ferreira GUIMARAES B WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guimaraes B win~~46%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.806

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.781

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Guimaraes B win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Guimaraes B was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
2′Much as we predicted: Guimaraes B was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–27
22′Pacos Ferreira ahead on 10′ through T. Castro. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–25–58
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Guimaraes B win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Pacos Ferreira win 27%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Guimaraes B win: 46% at kick-off, 17% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Pacos Ferreira win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Guimaraes B win 17%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Guimaraes B win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
24′Pacos Ferreira ahead on 10′ through T. Castro. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–25–59
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Guimaraes B win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Guimaraes B win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Pacos Ferreira win 27%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Guimaraes B win: 46% at kick-off, 17% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Pacos Ferreira win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Guimaraes B win 17%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Guimaraes B win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Pacos Ferreira win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Guimaraes B win 16%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Guimaraes B win: 46% at kick-off, 17% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Guimaraes B win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Pacos Ferreira
40′We said Guimaraes B at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–25–63
42′We said Guimaraes B at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–64
45′HALF-TIME Guimaraes B 0–1 Pacos Ferreira
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Guimaraes B win: 46% at kick-off, 11% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Pacos Ferreira win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Guimaraes B win 11%)
46′SECOND HALF Guimaraes B 0–1 Pacos Ferreira
48′⚽ GOAL · 10' Guimaraes B 0–1 Pacos Ferreira · T. Castro (assist L. Dias)
48′🟨 YELLOW · 39' M. Fale · Pacos Ferreira
62′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Guimaraes B · On: G. Braga · Off: Rodrigo Silva
62′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Guimaraes B · On: M. Tepe · Off: R. Neto
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Pacos Ferreira
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Guimaraes B
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Pacos Ferreira · On: Sacra · Off: N. Cunha
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Pacos Ferreira · On: Vitinho · Off: Platiny
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Guimaraes B · On: S. Dahle · Off: Zeega
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Guimaraes B · On: U. Akuazaoku · Off: R. Macedo
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Pacos Ferreira · On: Caio Rafael · Off: Joao Pedro
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Guimaraes B · On: Jota · Off: G. Paula
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pacos Ferreira · On: Diegao · Off: M. Fale
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pacos Ferreira · On: I. Vulpe · Off: T. Castro
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Guimaraes B
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Guimaraes B
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Pacos Ferreira
FTFULL TIME Guimaraes B 0–1 Pacos Ferreira
FTGuimaraes B 0–1 Pacos Ferreira · Guimaraes B win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Guimaraes B win46%

Draw27%

Pacos Ferreira win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueAcademia Vitoria SC

Line-ups

Guimaraes B

Pacos Ferreira

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Guimaraes B

Pacos Ferreira

29Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Guimaraes B	5	−1	5
20	Pacos Ferreira	5	−5	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Guimaraes B

Formation not confirmed

99 Guilherme

96 Rodrigo Silva

76 Alcobia

93 Rika

72 T. Rodrigues

67 R. Neto

14 R. Duarte

50 Zeega

80 R. Rocha

87 G. Paula

90 R. Macedo

Coach · Gil Lameiras

Substitutes

81 · J. Fernandes

74 · G. Braga

75 · A. Oliveira

83 · J. Sampaio

68 · R. Cunha

88 · S. Dahle

32 · M. Tepe

89 · U. Akuazaoku

37 · Jota

Pacos Ferreira

Formation not confirmed

1 Rafa

2 T. Mesquita

22 Wesley Junio

33 Rafael

15 L. Dias

99 Platiny

6 T. Podstawski

8 N. Cunha

7 Joao Pedro

96 M. Fale

19 T. Castro

Coach · Nuno Silva

Substitutes

31 · C. Figueiredo

3 · Diegao

11 · Sacra

29 · T. Cerveira

34 · J. Anunciacao

37 · I. Vulpe

70 · Vitinho

80 · Caio Rafael

85 · D. Castro

Our number · guimaraes b winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

46% The market44%

Us46%

~~Market~~44%

We make Guimaraes B a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · guimaraes b win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guimaraes B win	46%	44%	+2
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Pacos Ferreira win	28%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	52%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	26%	−4
Guimaraes B or draw	72%	72%	+1
Guimaraes B clean sheet	37%	–	–
Pacos Ferreira clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 9.1 9.2 4.7 1 12.6 12.5 6.4 2.2 2 8.7 8.7 4.4 3 4.1 4.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guimaraes B down, Pacos Ferreira across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,621 Liga 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Guimaraes B at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pacos Ferreira away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Guimaraes B, 1.02 for Pacos Ferreira. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga 3

GUIMARAES B

LLWDDL1–3 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

PACOS FERREIRA

LLLDD1–2 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	+11	15
2	Paredes	6	+4	13
3	Atlético CP	5	+5	10
4	Leça	6	+1	10
5	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
6	Varzim	5	+3	9
7	Vianense	6	+1	9
8	Oliveirense	6	0	9
9	Fafe	5	+4	8
10	Mafra	5	+4	7
11	Caldas	5	0	7
12	Louletano	6	−1	7
13	União Santarém	6	−4	7
14	SC Covilha	6	−2	6
15	Guimaraes B	5	−1	5
16	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
17	Trofense	5	−5	4
18	Vitória de Sernache	6	−9	4
19	São João Ver	5	−3	3
20	Pacos Ferreira	5	−5	2