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Fafe v Trofense

Fafe

2–2Full time

Trofense

Liga 3 · SUN 11 OCT · Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Fafe 2–2 Trofense FAFE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fafe win~~45%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.789

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.911

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 50 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fafe win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fafe was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–29–27
3′Much as we predicted: Fafe was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
23′Nuninho scores for Trofense on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–60
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Trofense win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Fafe win 15%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Fafe win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Fafe win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Trofense win 27%)
24′Nuninho scores for Trofense on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–60
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Fafe win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Trofense win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Fafe win 15%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Fafe win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Fafe win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Trofense win 27%)
25′⚽ GOAL · 13' Fafe 0–1 Trofense · Nuninho
44′We said Fafe at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–25–66
44′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Fafe · On: P. Otumba · Off: Mimito
45′We said Fafe at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
45′HALF-TIME Fafe 0–1 Trofense
46′SECOND HALF Fafe 0–1 Trofense
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fafe · On: K. Asamoah · Off: G. Dinis
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Fafe win: 45% at kick-off, 9% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Trofense win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Fafe win 9%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Fafe win: 45% at kick-off, 9% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Trofense win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Fafe win 9%)
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Trofense
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Trofense
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Fafe · On: J. Amaral · Off: P. Pereira
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Fafe · On: Rafael Martins · Off: D. Carvalho
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Trofense
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Fafe
72′🟨 YELLOW · 69' O. Ribeiro · Fafe
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Fafe 1–1 Trofense
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Fafe · On: Carlos Daniel · Off: T. Veiga
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Trofense · On: D. Nunes · Off: J. Oliveira
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Trofense · On: Samuca · Off: Kiki
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Trofense · On: Kaua Souza · Off: Feliz
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Trofense · On: W. Oliveira · Off: Matheus Claudino
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Fafe 2–1 Trofense
90′🟥 RED CARD · 94' Fafe
90′⚽ GOAL · 13' Fafe 1–1 Trofense · Nuninho
90′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Fafe · On: P. Otumba · Off: Mimito
90′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fafe · On: K. Asamoah · Off: G. Dinis
90′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Lucca Carvalho · Trofense
90′🟨 YELLOW · 58' T. Oliveira · Trofense
90′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Fafe · On: J. Amaral · Off: P. Pereira
90′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Fafe · On: Rafael Martins · Off: D. Carvalho
90′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Trofense · On: Weliton · Off: Kevyn Santos
90′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Trofense
90′🟨 YELLOW · 69' O. Ribeiro · Fafe
90′⚽ GOAL · 73' Fafe 1–1 Trofense · M. Correia
90′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Fafe · On: Carlos Daniel · Off: T. Veiga
90′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Trofense · On: D. Nunes · Off: J. Oliveira
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Trofense · On: Samuca · Off: Kiki
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Trofense · On: Kaua Souza · Off: Feliz
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Trofense · On: W. Oliveira · Off: Matheus Claudino
90′🟥 RED CARD · 93' Carlos Daniel · Fafe
90′⚽ GOAL · 98' Fafe 1–2 Trofense
FTFULL TIME Fafe 2–2 Trofense
FTFafe 2–2 Trofense · Fafe win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Fafe win45%

Draw28%

Trofense win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

VenueParque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe

Line-ups

Fafe

Trofense

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Fafe

Trofense

28Days since last match29

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Fafe	5	+4	8
17	Trofense	5	−5	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Fafe

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Kudakovskiy

2 O. Ribeiro

26 J. Batista

3 P. Pereira

15 Breno

16 G. Dinis

10 D. Carvalho

8 Mimito

11 Picas

9 M. Correia

13 T. Veiga

Coach · Mario Ferreira

Substitutes

99 · G. Carneiro

6 · Sequeira

7 · Rafael Martins

24 · J. Amaral

28 · B. Ferreira

35 · F. Cardoso

77 · Carlos Daniel

88 · K. Asamoah

90 · P. Otumba

Trofense

Formation not confirmed

31 M. Balde

7 J. Oliveira

3 Lucca Carvalho

50 T. Silva

21 T. Oliveira

22 Matheus Claudino

65 A. Gomes

30 Feliz

89 Nuninho

11 Kiki

9 Kevyn Santos

Coach · Cristiano Brito

Substitutes

1 · R. Moura

24 · Weliton

25 · Samuca

28 · D. Nunes

39 · Kaua Souza

83 · W. Oliveira

– · Bruno

77 · M. Andrade

70 · R. Peixoto

Our number · fafe winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

45% The market58%

Us45%

~~Market~~58%

We make Fafe a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fafe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fafe win	45%	58%	−13
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Trofense win	27%	16%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	38%	45%	−7
Both teams to score	44%	45%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	25%	−6
Fafe or draw	73%	84%	−11
Fafe clean sheet	39%	–	–
Trofense clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 10.9 10.2 4.7 1 14.0 12.8 6.0 2 9.0 8.3 3.9 3 3.9 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fafe down, Trofense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,621 Liga 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fafe at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Trofense away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Fafe, 0.94 for Trofense. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FAF 1–2 TRO · TRO 5–1 FAF · TRO 3–2 FAF · FAF 1–0 TRO

Form · last six in Liga 3

FAFE

DDWDWL0–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2

TROFENSE

LLLWDL0–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	+11	15
2	Paredes	6	+4	13
3	Atlético CP	5	+5	10
4	Leça	6	+1	10
5	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
6	Varzim	5	+3	9
7	Vianense	6	+1	9
8	Oliveirense	6	0	9
9	Fafe	5	+4	8
10	Mafra	5	+4	7
11	Caldas	5	0	7
12	Louletano	6	−1	7
13	União Santarém	6	−4	7
14	SC Covilha	6	−2	6
15	Guimaraes B	5	−1	5
16	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
17	Trofense	5	−5	4
18	Vitória de Sernache	6	−9	4
19	São João Ver	5	−3	3
20	Pacos Ferreira	5	−5	2