Fafe v Pacos Ferreira prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FafeDrawPacos Ferreira

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Fafe 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fafe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fafe 48%, draw 25%, Pacos Ferreira 27%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Fafe v Pacos FerreiraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Fafe win48%

Draw25%

Pacos Ferreira win27%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueParque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fafe

Pacos Ferreira

12Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 23 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Fafe	6	+4	9
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fafe winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Fafe a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fafe v Pacos Ferreira~~1.51 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 9 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~5 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fafe win	48%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Pacos Ferreira win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Fafe or draw	73%	–	–
Fafe clean sheet	35%	–	–
Pacos Ferreira clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.7 8.3 4.3 1 11.7 12.0 6.4 2.3 2 8.7 9.1 4.8 3 4.4 4.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fafe down, Pacos Ferreira across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 Liga 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fafe at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pacos Ferreira away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Fafe, 1.06 for Pacos Ferreira. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PAC 0–0 FAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 9 Aug

FAFE

DWDWLD0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

PACOS FERREIRA

LLDDWW0–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paredes	7	+8	16
2	Leça	7	0	10
3	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
4	Vianense	6	+1	9
5	Fafe	6	+4	9
6	Varzim	6	+2	9
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	−3	8
8	São João Ver	6	−2	6
9	Guimaraes B	6	−2	5
10	Trofense	7	−9	5