CF Os Belenenses v SC Covilha prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CF Os BelenensesDrawSC Covilha

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · CF Os Belenenses 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CF Os Belenenses are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CF Os Belenenses 60%, draw 23%, SC Covilha 17%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on CF Os Belenenses v SC CovilhaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

CF Os Belenenses win60%

Draw23%

SC Covilha win17%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CF Os Belenenses

SC Covilha

7Days since last match15

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 10 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cf os belenenses winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make CF Os Belenenses a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CF Os Belenenses v SC Covilha~~1.77 – 0.79

~~Form · Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 6~~1 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CF Os Belenenses win	60%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
SC Covilha win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
CF Os Belenenses or draw	83%	–	–
CF Os Belenenses clean sheet	45%	–	–
SC Covilha clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 7.8 6.3 2.5 1 13.8 10.6 4.3 2 11.9 9.4 3.7 3 7.1 5.5 2.2 4 3.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CF Os Belenenses down, SC Covilha across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 Liga 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CF Os Belenenses at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). SC Covilha away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for CF Os Belenenses, 0.79 for SC Covilha. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SCC 0–4 CFO · CFO 3–0 SCC · CFO 2–2 SCC · SCC 2–2 CFO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug

CF OS BELENENSES

WWWWWD1–0 · 3–1 · 5–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

SC COVILHA

WDLLDD2–0 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	+11	16
2	Atlético CP	6	+8	13
3	Oliveirense	6	0	9
4	Mafra	6	+4	8
5	Louletano	6	−1	7
6	União Santarém	6	−4	7
7	Caldas	6	−3	7
8	SC Covilha	6	−2	6
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	−9	4