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Caldas v Mafra

Caldas
3–3Full time
Mafra

Liga 3 · SAT 24 OCT · Campo da Mata

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Caldas 3–3 Mafra MAFRA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Mafra win39%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.833
The market’s Brier score0.779

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Mafra win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Mafra 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Caldas v Mafra
  4. 32′Caldas find the net on 31′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–23–12
  5. 32′We said Mafra at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 65–23–12
  6. 32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Caldas 1–0 Mafra
  7. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Mafra win: 39% at kick-off, 12% now
  8. 32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Caldas win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Mafra win 35%)
  9. 33′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 65–23–12
  10. 42′A goal for Caldas on 42′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–8–2
  11. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Caldas 2–0 Mafra
  12. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Mafra win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
  13. 43′We said Mafra at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 90–8–2
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Caldas 2–0 Mafra
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Caldas 2–0 Mafra
  16. 47′Mafra score on 47′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 69–22–9
  17. 47′We said Mafra at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 69–22–9
  18. 47′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 69–22–9
  19. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Caldas 2–1 Mafra
  20. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mafra · On: A. Ngom · Off: A. Ba
  21. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mafra · On: L. Neves · Off: G. Cardoso
  22. 63′Mafra find the net on 63′. 2–2. 2–2 · 23–52–25
  23. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Caldas 2–2 Mafra
  24. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Mafra win: 39% at kick-off, 25% now
  25. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Caldas win 75%)
  26. 64′We said Mafra at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 22–53–24
  27. 64′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 22–53–24
  28. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Caldas · On: D. Izata · Off: G. Pio
  29. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Caldas · On: Ricky · Off: E. J. Mucuana Lobo
  30. 72′We said Mafra at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 18–63–19
  31. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Mafra win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  32. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Mafra · On: Goba Zakpa · Off: Leandro Alves
  33. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Caldas · On: Pepo · Off: F. Oliveira
  34. 78′A goal for Mafra on 78′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–12–87
  35. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Caldas 2–3 Mafra
  36. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Mafra win: 39% at kick-off, 87% now
  37. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Mafra win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 72%)
  38. 79′We said Mafra at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–3 · 1–12–87
  39. 79′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–12–87
  40. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Mafra
  41. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Mafra win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
  42. 82′We said Mafra at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–3 · 1–9–90
  43. 85′Caldas score on 84′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 7–85–8
  44. 85′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 7–85–8
  45. 85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Caldas 3–3 Mafra
  46. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Mafra win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
  47. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Mafra win 92%)
  48. 88′85′: G. Chaves on the scoresheet for Caldas, making it 3–3. 3–3 · 5–89–6
  49. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Caldas · On: D. Fernandes · Off: D. Clemente
  50. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Caldas · On: J. Vieira · Off: Nando
  51. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Mafra · On: Y. Maiga · Off: R. Matos
  52. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Mafra · On: J. Ferreira · Off: J. Silva
  53. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Mafra
  54. FTFULL TIME Caldas 3–3 Mafra
  55. FTCaldas 3–3 Mafra · Mafra win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mafra just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Caldas 35%, draw 25%, Mafra 39%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Caldas v MafraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Caldas win35%
Draw25%
Mafra win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueCampo da Mata

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Caldas

Mafra

13Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 2

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Mafra6+48
7Caldas6−37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mafra winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
39% The market43%
Us39%
Market43%

We make Mafra a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Caldas v Mafra1.30 – 1.39
Form · Liga 3 this season · since 8 AugW2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 7 v 87 v 4
The market · Mafra win43% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:26
Our probability · Mafra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Caldas win35%29%+6
Draw25%28%−3
Mafra win39%43%−4
Over 2.5 goals50%46%+4
Both teams to score54%51%+3
Over 1.5 goals75%70%+5
Over 3.5 goals28%26%+2
Caldas or draw61%57%+4
Caldas clean sheet25%––
Mafra clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 6.8 9.6 6.6 3.1 1 9.0 12.0 8.4 3.9 2 5.8 7.9 5.4 2.5 3 2.5 3.4 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Caldas down, Mafra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsMAF 4–2 CAL · CAL 1–1 MAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug

CALDAS

LDLWWL0–1 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–4

MAFRA

WDLWLD5–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 2
#TEAMPGDPTS
1CF Os Belenenses6+1116
2Atlético CP6+813
3Oliveirense609
4Mafra6+48
5Louletano6−17
6União Santarém6−47
7Caldas6−37
8SC Covilha6−26
9Lusitano Évora 19116−45
10Vitória de Sernache6−94

The competition's standings before kick-off.