Atlético CP v União Santarém prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atlético CPDrawUnião Santarém

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atlético CP 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético CP are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético CP 47%, draw 28%, União Santarém 25%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Atlético CP v União SantarémBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Atlético CP win47%

Draw28%

União Santarém win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético CP

União Santarém

14Days since last match17

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 14 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Atlético CP	6	+8	13
6	União Santarém	6	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético cp winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Atlético CP a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético CP v União Santarém~~1.31 – 0.87

~~Form · Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 7~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético CP win	47%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
União Santarém win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Atlético CP or draw	75%	–	–
Atlético CP clean sheet	42%	–	–
União Santarém clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 11.4 10.0 4.3 1 14.9 12.6 5.5 2 9.7 8.3 3.6 3 4.3 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético CP down, União Santarém across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 Liga 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético CP at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). União Santarém away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Atlético CP, 0.87 for União Santarém. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–1 ATL · ATL 1–2 UNI · ATL 1–0 UNI · UNI 2–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 3 this season · since 8 Aug

ATLÉTICO CP

WDWWLW1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 4–1

UNIÃO SANTARÉM

LDLLWW0–2 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	+11	16
2	Atlético CP	6	+8	13
3	Oliveirense	7	0	10
4	Mafra	7	+4	9
5	Caldas	7	−3	8
6	União Santarém	6	−4	7
7	Louletano	6	−1	7
8	SC Covilha	6	−2	6
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	7	−4	6
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	−9	4