Atlético CP v Caldas prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Atlético CP 4–1 Caldas ATLÉTICO CP WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético CP win~~50%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.382

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.324

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético CP win at 50%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Atlético CP 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–28–23
6′Little has changed for our model: Atlético CP 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–28–23
19′8′ and it is 1–0: V. Durand on the scoresheet for Atlético CP. 1–0 · 77–16–6
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Atlético CP win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Atlético CP win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Atlético CP win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Atlético CP win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Atlético CP win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Atlético CP win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
22′8′ and it is 1–0: V. Durand on the scoresheet for Atlético CP. 1–0 · 77–16–6
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Atlético CP win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Atlético CP win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Caldas
37′We said Atlético CP at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–5
38′We said Atlético CP at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–5
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Atlético CP
45′HALF-TIME Atlético CP 1–0 Caldas
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Atlético CP win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 8' Atlético CP 1–0 Caldas · V. Durand (assist C. Santana)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 10' M. Palmerio · Caldas
45′🟨 YELLOW · 35' T. Serrazina · Caldas
45′🟨 YELLOW · 42' E. Pacheco · Atlético CP
46′SECOND HALF Atlético CP 1–0 Caldas
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Caldas · On: D. Clemente · Off: T. Serrazina
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Caldas · On: D. Clemente · Off: T. Serrazina
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Atlético CP 2–0 Caldas
68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Atlético CP · On: G. Costa · Off: M. Konate
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Caldas · On: D. Fernandes · Off: R. Correia
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Atlético CP · On: S. Traore · Off: H. Suker
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Atlético CP 3–0 Caldas
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Atlético CP 3–1 Caldas
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Atlético CP
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Atlético CP 4–1 Caldas
90′⚽ GOAL · 8' Atlético CP 4–1 Caldas · V. Durand (assist C. Santana)
90′🟨 YELLOW · 10' M. Palmerio · Caldas
90′🟨 YELLOW · 35' T. Serrazina · Caldas
90′🟨 YELLOW · 42' E. Pacheco · Atlético CP
90′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Caldas · On: Tarzan · Off: Ricky
90′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Caldas · On: E. J. Mucuana Lobo · Off: G. Pio
90′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Caldas · On: D. Clemente · Off: T. Serrazina
90′⚽ GOAL · 48' Atlético CP 4–1 Caldas · H. Suker (assist C. Santana)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Atlético CP · On: G. Costa · Off: M. Konate
90′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Caldas · On: D. Fernandes · Off: R. Correia
90′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Atlético CP · On: S. Traore · Off: H. Suker
90′⚽ GOAL · 84' Atlético CP 4–1 Caldas · Nicolas Souza
90′⚽ GOAL · 86' Atlético CP 4–1 Caldas · Goncas
FTFULL TIME Atlético CP 4–1 Caldas
FTAtlético CP 4–1 Caldas · Atlético CP win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Atlético CP win50%

Draw27%

Caldas win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Line-ups

Atlético CP

Caldas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atlético CP

Caldas

28Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Atlético CP	5	+5	10
11	Caldas	5	0	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atlético CP

Formation not confirmed

22 N. Hidalgo

2 J. Martins

33 A. Calegari

4 D. Henriques

5 V. Durand

18 R. Dias

28 M. Konate

20 E. Pacheco

10 Caleb

38 C. Santana

11 H. Suker

Coach · Pedro D'Oliveira

Substitutes

99 · R. Dias

45 · R. Tavares

29 · D. Dinamite

6 · G. Costa

47 · P. Ramos

19 · S. Traore

23 · D. Arezes

85 · N. Gaspar

9 · Nicolas Souza

Caldas

Formation not confirmed

12 D. Almeida

20 G. Lourenco

3 Nando

70 D. Nascimento

22 T. Serrazina

5 R. Correia

80 M. Palmerio

17 Goncas

7 Ricky

77 G. Pio

9 G. Chaves

Coach · Copa Luzia Aguiar Joao Nuno

Substitutes

1 · W. Soares

23 · M. Rodeia

8 · D. Clemente

10 · Pepo

24 · F. Oliveira

11 · D. Fernandes

21 · E. J. Mucuana Lobo

35 · Tarzan

91 · J. Vieira

Our number · atlético cp winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

50% The market54%

Us50%

~~Market~~54%

We make Atlético CP a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atlético cp win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético CP win	50%	54%	−4
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Caldas win	24%	20%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−6
Atlético CP or draw	76%	80%	−4
Atlético CP clean sheet	41%	–	–
Caldas clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 9.9 8.8 3.9 1 14.1 12.3 5.5 2 10.0 8.8 3.9 3 4.8 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético CP down, Caldas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,621 Liga 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético CP at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Caldas away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Atlético CP, 0.89 for Caldas. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ATL 2–0 CAL · CAL 0–1 ATL · CAL 0–1 ATL · ATL 2–0 CAL

Form · last six in Liga 3

ATLÉTICO CP

WWDWWL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 0–1

CALDAS

LLDLWW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CF Os Belenenses	5	+11	15
2	Paredes	6	+4	13
3	Atlético CP	5	+5	10
4	Leça	6	+1	10
5	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
6	Varzim	5	+3	9
7	Vianense	6	+1	9
8	Oliveirense	6	0	9
9	Fafe	5	+4	8
10	Mafra	5	+4	7
11	Caldas	5	0	7
12	Louletano	6	−1	7
13	União Santarém	6	−4	7
14	SC Covilha	6	−2	6
15	Guimaraes B	5	−1	5
16	Lusitano Évora 1911	6	−4	5
17	Trofense	5	−5	4
18	Vitória de Sernache	6	−9	4
19	São João Ver	5	−3	3
20	Pacos Ferreira	5	−5	2