AD Marco 09 v Fafe prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AD Marco 09DrawFafe

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · AD Marco 09 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with AD Marco 09 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: AD Marco 09 36%, draw 28%, Fafe 35%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on AD Marco 09 v FafeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

AD Marco 09 win36%

Draw28%

Fafe win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMunicipal de Marco de Canaveses

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AD Marco 09

Fafe

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
5	Fafe	6	+4	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ad marco 09 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make AD Marco 09 a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AD Marco 09 v Fafe~~1.16 – 1.14

~~Form · Liga 3 this season · since 9 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 9~~3 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AD Marco 09 win	36%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Fafe win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
AD Marco 09 or draw	65%	–	–
AD Marco 09 clean sheet	32%	–	–
Fafe clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.2 11.7 6.5 2.5 1 11.9 13.0 7.4 2.8 2 6.7 7.5 4.3 3 2.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AD Marco 09 down, Fafe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,630 Liga 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AD Marco 09 at home: 1.17 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Fafe away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for AD Marco 09, 1.14 for Fafe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ADM 1–0 FAF · FAF 1–1 ADM · ADM 1–1 FAF · FAF 0–0 ADM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Liga 3 this season · since 9 Aug

AD MARCO 09

WLWDWL2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

FAFE

DWDWLD0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27 · Liga 3 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paredes	7	+8	16
2	Leça	7	0	10
3	AD Marco 09	6	+1	10
4	Vianense	6	+1	9
5	Fafe	6	+4	9
6	Varzim	6	+2	9
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	−3	8
8	São João Ver	6	−2	6
9	Guimaraes B	6	−2	5
10	Trofense	7	−9	5